The good news is 2019 was a remarkable year for solar in the U.S.
The bad news is, well, you know what the bad news is.
In a word, #covid-45. Although China and Europe messed up pretty thoroughly, too.
Analyst Wood Mackenzie and industry body the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) have published their 2019 U.S. Solar Market Insight report. However, the publication does not take into account the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the U.S. solar industry supply chains, component costs and project timelines.
The report is available for purchase for $5000 from Wood Mackenzie or the SEIA. (My market analysis work used to go for comparable prices back in the 80s and 90s.) The Executive Summary can be downloaded by providing basic data.
From the Executive Summary
- Solar accounted for nearly 40% of all new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2019, the largest annual share in the industry’s history.
- In 2019, the U.S. solar market installed 13.3 GWdc of solar PV, a 23% increase from 2018.
- Cumulative operating photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. now exceeds 76 GWdc, up from just 1 GWdc at the end of 2009.
- The U.S. saw record-setting residential solar capacity added in 2019, with more than 2.8 GW dc installed.
- A total of 30.4 GW dc of new utility PV projects were announced in 2019, bringing the contracted utility PV pipeline to a record high of 48.1 GW dc .
- Non-residential PV declined slightly in 2019 with 2 GW dc installed, as policy shifts in states including California, Massachusetts and Minnesota continue to impact growth.
- Community solar continues to expand its geographic diversification, and it experienced a third consecutive year of more than 500 MW installed.
- Wood Mackenzie forecasts 47% annual growth in 2020, with nearly 20 GWdc of installations expected. In total, more than 9 GW were added to the five-year forecast since last quarter to account for new utility-scale procurement.
- Total installed U.S. PV capacity will more than double over the next five years, with annual installations reaching 20.4 GW dc in 2021 prior to the expiration of the federal Investment Tax Credit for residential systems and a drop in the commercial credit to 10% (under the current version of the law).
- By 2025, one in every three residential solar systems and one in every four non-residential solar systems will be paired with energy storage.
Analysts never agree precisely on the numbers. They aren't really supposed to. We will look at the range of predictions. They do agree that the solar market, in the US and worldwide, is poised for record growth.
First, the latest in bad news.
Renewable Monday: Covid-19 Impact on Solar Panel Production
BNEF lowers 2020 global PV outlook due to coronavirus concerns
The Chinese government has already pushed some PV projects that had been planned for this year into 2021. BNEF has therefore also reduced its expectations for newly installed PV capacity in 2020. It expects developers to install between 108 GW and 143 GW of new solar capacity this year. This contrasts sharply with the forecast that BNEF issued in February for annual global PV capacity additions of 121 GW to 152 GW.
So we might lose 10-15 GW of new installations this year, and resume normal growth in 2021. (Without The Trump Effect, among other things.)
And now for various kinds of good news.
Mar 17, 2020 - In 2019, the U.S. solar market installed 13.3 GW of solar PV, a 23% increase from 2018. Cumulative operating PV capacity in the U.S. now exceeds 76 GW, up from just 1 GW at the end of 2009. The U.S. saw record-setting residential solar capacity added in 2019 with more than 2.8 GW installed.
The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting that 13.4 GWac of utility scale solar power, and 5.1 GWac of small solar power will be installed in the U.S. in 2020 — a 95% increase over 2019.
Feb 3, 2020 - This is the first of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover solar, wind, oil & gas, coal, nuclear, and geothermal (so far) and will answer the same four questions for each.
How big is the US solar industry, and what is its growth trajectory?
Currently, the US solar industry employs
about 242,000 people and generates
tens of billions of dollars of economic value. By the end of September 2019, the US had deployed over 2 million solar PV systems, totaling about
71,300 MW of solar capacity, and generating
over 100 TWh of electricity (2019 total, est.). In 2018, solar generated
about 1.5% of US electricity. Of all renewable energy generation, solar PV is expected to
grow the fastest from now to 2050. Some solar-heavy grids, such as the California Independent System Operator, have experienced times where
over half of demand was met by solar PV.
Jan 14, 2020 - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest
inventory of electric generators, EIA expects 42 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity additions to start commercial operation in 2020. Solar and wind represent almost 32 GW, or 76%, of these additions. Wind accounts for the largest share of these additions at 44%, followed by solar and natural gas at 32% and 22%, respectively. The remaining 2% comes from hydroelectric generators and battery storage.
Feb 25, 2020 - There is now enough installed solar energy capacity in the U.S. to power 13.5 million homes, and this amount is expected to double in the next five years. The solar energy industry is part of a very dynamic market. Many factors — including government policies, fossil fuel costs, solar energy technology advances, commodity prices, and even public awareness of the climate crisis — impact solar energy deployment across the globe.
- [Lithium-Ion] Battery Prices Are Falling
-
Federal Solar Tax Credit Starts Decreasing
-
Electric Vehicles Boost Electricity Demand
-
Demand for Solar With Battery Storage Increases
Solar PV Market Outlook 2020 | Seeking Alpha
Feb 25, 2020
- Lower than expected global demand and additional capacity buildup to worsen oversupply issues and pressure average PV prices.
- Demand from China is likely to shrink once again, EU will significantly slowdown.
- The US market will be the brightest spot for new installations.