I read today that we are to have “packed churches” on Easter with the Economy opened up somehow Monday following.
Unless behavior changes that came into place a few weeks back have significant impact, the main reason Churches will be packed on Easter Sunday is for Funerals.
I estimate about 66 Thousand Funerals Easter Sunday, or roughly every Funeral Home in the US having three funerals that day.
I’ve added a series of callout numbers to what we’ll experience over the next four weeks, since COVID seems to be frequently compared in Press events to “The” Flu, Traffic Fatalities, or Wartime settings. Brace yourself.
Here’s a projection of COVID deaths, until end-April, tagged with similar milestones.
For anyone following my posts, reflecting my trying to figure out what future I face, I think I’ve now settled on the most accurate method of projecting COVID numbers. The blue line you see above is actual total deaths in the US, the orange line is a Biological Growth Model (call the Generalized Logistic Function) which I then curve-fitted to the US Actuals data. It’s disturbingly accurate at this point. It’s on a logarithmic scale here, which helps to compress the chart. Otherwise, you see the orange line just go straight up, out of sight, fast.
Here’s the same data, in a table, easier to read perhaps but less graphic.
US COVID Deaths: Projected Mar/Apr, Comparable Milestones
Date |
Covid
Deaths |
Comparable
Milestone |
Milestone
Deaths |
23 March |
553 |
Yesterday |
ActualI’ |
29 March |
2,335 |
Afghan War (to Date) |
2,216 |
30 March |
2,991 |
9/11 Attack |
2,966 |
1 April |
4,904 |
Iraq War |
4,497 |
8 April |
27,670 |
2019-2020 Flu (est) |
30,000 |
9 April |
35,416 |
2019 Car Fatalities |
36,505 |
11 April |
57,992 |
Vietnam War |
57,939 |
14 April |
121,226 |
World War I |
116,516 |
19 April |
408,275 |
World War II |
405,399 |
23 April |
1,042,158 |
4 Weeks Later |
Projected |
When I read the phrase Easter “packed churches” I became physically nauseated, and I had react somehow. The staggering incomprehension of what’s facing us, unless “Social Distancing” has a really pronounced effect within a week, and the blitheness of “back to work” after Easter is just numbing.
I’m still not getting the hang of Images on Daily Kos, and the Excel Chart above may be still hard to read, I’m sorry that I don’t understand how to render as crisp an image as I see. I also can't seem to get stuff aligned the way I need. I’m also not sure if I have to capitalize tags. Learning curve.
Disclaimer: I’m not a statistician, nor am I an epidemiologist or physician. I do have substantial training in science and mathematics. My assumptions are based on publicly available data, and interpreted without domain-specific expertise to temper my judgements.