Let's get back to dreaming for just a moment about restoring competence and humanity to the White House, and thinking through what's most necessary to turn that dream into a reality.
On Thursday, a newly released poll conducted in Michigan and Wisconsin found that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren edged out seven other potential vice presidential picks in terms of popularity in the critical swing states for Democrats. Warren was the top pick of all registered voters in Wisconsin at 62%, 5 points ahead of her closest rival, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 57%, and 10 points ahead of the third-place pick, Sen. Kamala Harris.
In Michigan, Warren drew 53% of those surveyed and was overshadowed only by the state's popular governor, Gretchen Whitmer, with 69%. But Whitmer doesn't have near the national profile that Warren does (only getting 29% in neighboring Wisconsin), and though Whitmer has praised Biden for promising to choose a female running mate, she has also explicitly said, "it's not going to be me." Warren, in contrast, said this week that she would accept an invitation to be the running mate of presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. In a word, "yes."
As Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas noted Friday, while Warren was the top pick of all registered voters, among Black voters, she ran second to former Georgia State House Democratic leader Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost a bid to become governor of the state in 2018. African Americans are among the most important constituencies Democrats need to turn out in November and are arguably the single most important constituency. So Abrams drawing 38% of their support in Wisconsin and 36% in Michigan to Warren drawing low 30s in both states is notable and a worthy consideration. Abrams would no doubt be a fantastic asset to the ticket.
But Warren arguably already has more of the baked-in ingredients to strengthen the Democratic ticket right out of the gate. For one, after a year-plus run for president, her name recognition is higher than almost any other potential pick tested in the poll. During the presidential primary, Warren also consistently ranked among the top 3 candidates in terms of favorability ratings with Democratic voters, even after her stumbles in early voting.
Warren also runs particularly strong among the other must-get voting bloc for Democrats, white college-educated women. Warren didn't just have broad support there, it was deep and visceral and her exit from the campaign left many of these women distraught and crestfallen. It is a constituency that overall is highly engaged politically, is almost certain to show up at the polls, and given the right ticket, will also volunteer, organize, and donate in large numbers.
When it comes to the African American and white college-educated women, I personally have a different set of worries. For Black voters, I worry more about turnout, since suppressed African American turnout clearly hurt Hillary Clinton last cycle in key states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Once Black voters make it to the polls, they are undeniably the most reliable Democratic constituency. But in terms of white college women, I worry more about both getting their vote and overall engagement. Convincing this group to pull the lever for a Democrat is one half the battle, but the other is maximizing the potential volunteerism and donations they bring to the table. Just because as a constituency they are increasingly voting Democratic and indeed propelled Democrats to historic wins in 2018, that does not necessarily guarantee their involvement this cycle in get-out-the-vote efforts and a high level of political giving. Remember, the House races these women organized around in 2018 were localized. They both knew and clearly liked the candidates for whom they went to battle. This year, I think it would be a mistake for Democrats to take their whole-hearted devotion for granted. This is one place where Warren really shines in terms of the voters she energizes. Of course, one could also make the argument that taking Black voters for granted would be a mistake—and it would be. But the fact of the matter is, Biden already has an incredibly strong base of support among Black voters. In fact, they were the most indispensable element of Biden's improbable comeback. If African American voters had not decisively coalesced around Biden's candidacy, the primary would almost surely still be ongoing.
Finally, one of the most important assets Warren can bring to the ticket is her proven capacity for online fundraising. Warren was one of only two candidates in the Democratic primary to almost entirely fuel her candidacy through online grassroots fundraising. In fact, her muscular small-dollar fundraising operation fueled by her overall popularity among Democratic voters is the very reason she ended up being the last female candidate to drop out of the primary.
Warren's fundraising heft would be a crucial addition to the ticket, partly because Biden is a notoriously weak fundraiser. For January and February, the final two months in which Warren competed, she raised $39.4 million, second only to Bernie Sanders ($71.6 million) and far surpassing Biden's combined $27 million. Once more, Warren did that entirely online, without wasting precious time and energy relying on the high-dollar fundraisers that Biden held. Frankly, Biden needs the help and, given his deficit in this area, it's critical that his vice presidential pick adds fundraising potential to the ticket. None of the most talked about vice presidential options packs more fundraising punch than Warren does. Warren's built-in fundraising potential, national name recognition, overall popularity among Democratic voters and key constituencies all make her an ideal running mate for helping to put a Democrat back in the Oval Office. And it just so happens that she has an unparalleled number of ready-made policies and governing know-how to boot.