So, I decided to crunch some numbers and try to come up with a realistic picture of the Electoral Map in November….so let’s talk about how I arrived where I have…
I did NOT average in a poll on the economy in this, because even in states Trump is otherwise massively popular, he is tanking...and I felt it was unrealistic to include this at this time. I took an average of a few things — response to coronavirus, aggregate right track/wrong track since the Trump Presidency began (this was substituted for an economy poll for the reasons above) aggregate approval/disapproval since the beginning of the Trump Presidency and recent polling data in states where available. I added to it TWO counts of Trump approval/disapproval, aggregate since the beginning of the Trump Presidency — this was added in twice because Trump IS such a Cult Of Personality that this WILL factor into voting. To the totals of above I added a factor of -25 to plus 25 as a “built-in edge” accounting for historical as well as recent election results since 1980, with higher emphasis on more recent elections.
I then took the following liberties with the map:
I assumed one EV from Maine for Trump
I assumed a tossup EV from Nebraska
I assumed Tossup Iowa to be light blue, because the average came out within Margin of Error, but on the blue side.
I assumed Tossup Texas, Alaska and Georgia to slight Red...because I just can’t quite see them flipping yet this year.
Ohio and NC really WERE absolutely too close to call, NC is coming slightly blue, but I cannot bring myself, as a NC resident to call it that way just yet...because I just know a bit more about NC, and I am not quite prepared to call my own home state for Team Blue yet. Ohio REALLY WAS totally up in the air, hopelessly uncallable.
This bodes well for Team Blue, because, on this map, even if we lose AZ and FL (40 EV) — we still get 284. If we also lose Iowa, that’s 278...and then there is no margin for error. With Iowa in our column, we COULD lose Wisconsin, but not MI or PA
Bear in mind that TX AK and GA all came in as tossup...but I could not bring myself to call those tossup….of the three, I like GA as the best possible. And if we win either OH or NC it’s game over.
That’’s my call for now. Things look positive for Team Blue, but there is NO WAY IN HELL we can get complacent. a lot of this is way too close.