The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Polls: So, you like Senate polls, eh? Well, have all the Senate polls in the world!
- AZ-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Mark Kelly (D): 48, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45 (48-47 Biden)
- AZ-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Kelly (D): 51, McSally (R-inc): 45. (49-45 Biden) (Aug.: 49-43 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Kelly (D): 53, McSally (R-inc): 38 (48-43 Biden) (Aug.: 53-34 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: John Hickenlooper (D): 51, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 46 (50-40 Biden)
- GA-Sen-A: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Jon Ossoff (D): 48, David Perdue (R-inc): 47 (47-46 Biden)
- IA-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Joni Ernst (R-inc): 50, Theresa Greenfield (D): 45 (47-45 Trump)
- ME-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Sara Gideon (D): 44, Susan Collins (R-inc): 43, Lisa Savage (I): 7 (54-40 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Gary Peters (D-inc): 45, John James (R): 41 (50-43 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Peters (D-inc): 50, James (R): 46 (49-43 Biden) (Aug.: 50-45 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Peters (D-inc): 50, James (R): 38 (51-40 Biden) (Aug.: 48-39 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Rasmussen Reports: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 40 (53-44 Biden)
- MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for local media: Tina Smith (D-inc): 47, Jason Lewis (R): 36 (49-40 Biden)
- MT-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Steve Daines (R-inc): 50, Steve Bullock (D): 47 (50-43 Trump)
- NC-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Cal Cunningham (D): 42, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 39 (48-48 presidential tie)
- NC-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Cunningham (D): 51, Tillis (R-inc): 44 (49-47 Biden) (Aug.: 52-42 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Cunningham (D): 47, Tillis (R-inc): 37 (44-43 Trump) (Aug.: 47-38 Cunningham)
If you’re not James Coco, keep reading for more on some of these contests.
Campaign Action
AZ-Sen: While Democrat Mark Kelly has led in almost every single poll released this year, this batch of surveys very much disagrees about how far ahead he is. The only other poll that’s been publicized in September so far was a Fox News poll released last week from the bipartisan team of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company that found Kelly up 56-39.
CO-Sen: This Fabrizio Ward/ Hart Research poll, by contrast, isn’t too different from the two other surveys we’ve seen recently. About two weeks ago, Democrat John Hickenlooper’s allies at the safety group Giffords released numbers from Public Policy Polling that showed Hickenlooper beating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner 51-42, while a Morning Consult survey publicized days later had the Democrat ahead 48-39.
GA-Sen-A: The new joint poll from Fabrizio and Hart, like the three surveys we’d seen from August, finds a tight race. A month-old SurveyUSA poll for the local media found Republican Sen. David Perdue ahead 44-41. A mid-August PPP survey for the progressive site MoveOn showed the race tied 44-44, while an internal for Democrat Jon Ossoff taken around that same time by Garin-Hart-Yang put him ahead 48-46.
IA-Sen: This survey is the best poll we’ve seen for Republican Sen. Joni Ernst all year, though like August’s surveys, it also shows a competitive race. A Monmouth University poll that concluded at the start of last month put the incumbent ahead 48-45, while the progressive firm Data for Progress had Democrat Theresa Greenfield up 45-43 in a survey taken around the same time. A mid-August PPP survey for MoveOn also gave Greenfield a 48-45 edge.
ME-Sen: This is the best poll we’ve seen for Republican Sen. Susan Collins in some time, though she still hasn’t led in any publicly released numbers since late June. A total of five polls were released in August, and they gave Democrat Sara Gideon a lead ranging from 3 to 7 points.
This poll from Fabrizio and Hart also worked to simulate the state’s instant runoff voting, but it found little change when independent Lisa Savage was eliminated from consideration. Gideon maintains a 48-47 edge in a two-person race, with the Bangor Daily News writing that undecided voters broke for Collins while Savage’s supporters were more inclined to support the Democrat.
MN-Sen: SurveyUSA has the third poll we’ve seen over the last week in a race that still hasn’t attracted much outside attention. Republican Jason Lewis’ campaign released a Harper Polling survey that showed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith behind just 43-41, while PPP, which did not have a client, had the incumbent ahead 49-41.
MT-Sen: The Fabrizio and Hart poll is the first survey we’ve seen from a reputable firm (or in this case, firms) in some time. Back in mid-July, a Civiqs poll for Daily Kos put Republican Sen. Steve Daines’ lead at 49-47, which is very similar to what Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research find now.
Senate
● AK-Sen: Independent Al Gross' newest TV spot focuses on the ongoing postal service crisis, which hasn't been the subject of many campaign ads yet.
A local businessman named Wayne Kleven tells the audience that Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan didn't tell the truth when he said Alaska wasn't "on the chopping block" for cuts. Kleven continues by declaring that the incumbent "didn't stand up to his party when there were massive cuts for political reasons to the entire postal service. That's why everything's late now." Gross then appears and says he'll "fight like hell for Alaska's mail delivery."
● CO-Sen: Republican Sen. Cory Gardner's new commercial once again hits Democrat John Hickenlooper for receiving an ethics fine back in June.
As we've written before, the state Independent Ethics Commission ruled that Hickenlooper improperly allowed corporations to pay for his out-of-state trips as governor, and the body sanctioned him $2,750. Back in June, both Republicans and Hickenlooper's primary foe, Andrew Romanoff, ran commercials focusing on this story, but Hickenlooper went on to win the nomination 59-41. Republicans are still betting that this will weaken Hickenlooper, though, and Gardner and his allies have continued to run ads on this topic.
● GA-Sen-B: The AARP has released a survey of the Nov. 3 all-party primary conducted by a bipartisan team of pollsters, the Democratic firm Hart Research and the Republican group Fabrizio Ward, and it finds a close fight to reach the all-but-assured January runoff.
Appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler leads with 24%, while Republican Rep. Doug Collins holds a tiny 20-19 edge over pastor Raphael Warnock, the candidate supported by national Democrats, for the crucial second place spot. Two other Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, are further behind with 10% and 7%, respectively. The sample also favors Joe Biden by a small 47-46 margin.
We've seen just one other survey here in the last month, and it also found a similar result. In early August, a SurveyUSA poll for the local Atlanta media had Loeffler out in front with 26%, while Collins and Warnock were deadlocked 17-17 for second. Lieberman wasn't too far behind with 13%, while Tarver was again last with 3%.
Warnock began his first TV spots in mid-August, and his allies are hoping it will help him consolidate Democratic voters and prevent both Republicans from advancing to the runoff. Warnock also earned an endorsement this week from the Georgia American Federation of Labor, which the Atlanta Journal-Constitution called one of the state's most important unions.
● SC-Sen: The Lincoln Project, a group formed by several prominent Republican operatives seeking to defeat Donald Trump and his enablers, has announced a $1 million ad buy against Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, and their opening commercial should definitely not be viewed on a full stomach.
The first third of this minute-long spot features images of parasites devouring animals as the narrator declares, "Some animals are parasitic. They drink the lifeblood of their host, infect whatever they touch and spread like a virus. They're often right under our noses, camouflaged, convincing their hosts they're not harmful at all." The ad then shows clips of Graham dissing Trump as "crazy" and "a religious bigot," to which the narrator responds, "And when their host is taken from them, they seek a new one."
The commercial continues with clips of Graham praising Trump to the stars, before showing Graham saying how much he loves John McCain. "Parasites don't care if they feed off a good host, or an evil one," the narrator responds, "They only have one purpose: To feed." He concludes, "There's only one way to stop a parasite: Deprive it of its host."
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Democrat Nicole Galloway is out with a commercial pushing back on Republican attempts to caricature her as weak on law enforcement issues. "I work hand-in-hand with law enforcement to lock up corrupt politicians," Galloway tells the audience, "So [Republican Gov.] Mike Parson's claims that I want to defund the police are simply false." Galloway continues, "As governor, and as a mom, nothing is more important than keeping our communities safe."
● NC-Gov: The British firm Redfield and Wilton Strategies' new poll shows Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican Dan Forest 54-35, while Donald Trump is ahead 44-43. In mid-August, the group found Cooper and Trump up 51-38 and 46-44, respectively.
● VA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax said on Thursday that he would run to succeed termed-out Gov. Ralph Northam next year, with a formal announcement scheduled for Saturday. Fairfax, a Democrat, had said in December that he was "planning on running" for this post, but he didn’t make his campaign official until now.
Fairfax, who previously worked as a federal prosecutor, was elected statewide three years ago on his second try. In 2013, he lost a primary for attorney general 52-48 to Mark Herring, who went on to narrowly prevail in the general election. Fairfax then ran for lieutenant governor four years later, and his 53-47 victory that fall made him just the second African American to hold statewide office after Douglas Wilder, who served as lieutenant governor and then governor in the '80s and early '90s.
Northam was elected governor on the same ticket with Fairfax in 2017, but early last year, the state's entire Democratic establishment demanded he resign after he acknowledged that he’d appeared in a racist photograph in his 1984 medical school yearbook. Northam’s departure would have elevated Fairfax to the top job, but the governor soon backtracked and denied he was in the picture, rejecting calls for his resignation.
Days later, a California political science professor named Vanessa Tyson publicly accused Fairfax of sexually assaulting her at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Later that week, another woman named Meredith Watson said that Fairfax had raped her in 2000 when they were classmates at Duke University. Fairfax responded by saying that both encounters were consensual, and he called Watson’s allegations part of “a vicious and coordinated smear campaign.”
Like Northam, Fairfax refused to quit, and the accusations against both men largely vanished from the headlines over the following 18 months. Fairfax, though, has continued to bring up what he’s maintained are false allegations against him, telling the Washington Post in April, “Everyone’s saying, ‘Why is he still talking about it?’ People are exonerated all the time in our justice system. They’re not exonerated because they’ve been quiet.”
Fairfax joins a Democratic field that includes state Sen. Jennifer McClellan and Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, both of whom would be the first Black woman to serve as governor. A number of other Democrats are also eyeing this race, including former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who has filed paperwork to run but says he won’t decide until this year’s elections are over.
House
● CO-03: Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush uses her new commercial to argue that Republican Lauren Boebert is too partisan. "But candidate for Congress Boebert says she's tired of compromise," the narrator declares, "And criticized her former Republican opponent for only voting with his party 94% of the time." Mitsch Bush's first ad against Boebert also portrayed the Republican as too conservative without mentioning Boebert's support for the QAnon conspiracy theory.
● FL-27: The NRCC has released a survey from 1892 Polling that shows Republican Maria Elvira Salazar leading freshman Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala 46-43. This poll, which is the first we've seen from this contest, did not include presidential numbers.
This Miami-area seat backed Hillary Clinton 59-39 in 2016, and two years later, Shalala beat Salazar 52-46 in an open seat race. Despite Clinton's wide win, though, there are signs that Shalala and Salazar's rematch could once again be competitive in a district where downballot Republicans usually run well ahead of the national party ticket. Shalala had a stronger $1.8 million war chest in late July, but Salazar still had a notable $1.2 million to spend.
It's also very possible that the presidential race could be closer here than it was four years ago. A recent survey of Miami-Dade County, which contains this entire seat, for the Miami Herald from the Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi International showed Biden running well behind Clinton countywide, though it did not break the results down by congressional district. Florida Democrats are also fretting that Donald Trump could win considerably more support from Latinos this cycle, and they particularly fear that he could do especially well with Cuban Americans, who make up a large share of the 27th District's electorate.
Still, it would take a massive shift for Trump to come close, much less win, in this seat. According to analyst Matthew Isbell, all five members of the 2018 statewide Democratic ticket decisively carried this district, even though none of them came close to racking off the 20-point margin that Clinton received. Shalala, who will have the advantages of incumbency this time, is also betting that Trump will be toxic to Salazar. The congresswoman's first TV spot, which began airing earlier this month, positioned herself as a real leader at a time when Trump is failing to protect the country.
It remains to be seen how much either party plans to contest this seat. Major outside groups on both sides have booked millions in the Miami media market, but much of that money will be going towards the neighboring 26th District, which is being defended by Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
● TX-31: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, which is working on behalf of an unidentified group, finds Republican Rep. John Carter leading Democrat Donna Imam by a surprisingly small 43-37 margin; Libertarian Clark Patterson takes a relatively large 7% of the vote, while independent Jeremy Bravo grabs 3%. This is the first poll we've seen of this contest.
The sample also finds Donald Trump ahead by a narrow 48-47 spread in a historically red seat in Austin's northern suburbs that has been moving to the left in recent years. This district backed Trump 54-41 but supported GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by a small 51-48 margin; last cycle, Carter also fended off MJ Hegar, who is now Team Blue's Senate nominee, 51-48.
However, Iman's campaign has attracted considerably less attention than Hegar did. Iman only raised $235,000 through June 24 and self-funded another $200,000, and there hasn't been any major outside activity on either side yet.
Other Races
● IN-AG: Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel earned an endorsement this week from state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, a Republican who has been on the outs with her party for a while. Weinzapfel faces former Republican Rep. Todd Rokita this fall.
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