The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports
Specter up by 15 points in poll
That's according to Quinnipiac, but SurveyUSA has other numbers.
Specter, the incumbent, leads by a 52 to 37 percent margin among likely voters, according to the poll from Quinnipiac University in Connecticut. Toomey, who has spent the campaign season trying to paint the 74-year-old Specter as too liberal, has less than three weeks to close the gap.
Another poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KDKA and other television stations, puts Specter's lead at only 6 percentage points, though that poll used a controversial query method that relies on a recorded voice directing voters to give their responses using their telephone buttons.
I've read criticisms of SurveryUSA, but haven't they been fairly accurate this year? The discrepancies might be explained here.
To arrive at the 52-37 margin, Quinnipiac "pushed" undecided voters for the candidate toward whom they were leaning, but not necessarily committed.
A firm 11 percent of likely Republican voters remain undecided, while the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
It would not surprise me if Spector got the lion's share of the undecideds. Toomy's media campaign has been fairly one dimensional - Spector is too liberal. While that is enough to convince the rabid right, it may not be enough to close the deal with many republicans. Spector is seeking his 5th term, and is fairly respected by people in both parties. The guy has some clout, and most Pennsylvanians realize it.
Toomey's strategy of courting the more conservative wing of the Republican Party has proved only halfway successful. Among Republican voters who describe themselves as conservative, Specter earns 46 percent of the vote, while Toomey gets 43.
Even if he's not cornering the conservative votes, Toomey's persistent claim that Specter is too liberal has resonance with likely voters -- 43 percent of them believe Specter is too liberal, according to the poll.
Yet almost a third of those voters say they are still siding with the incumbent. "That means they respect him, even if they don't agree with him politically," Richards said.
This tidbit provides an interesting glimpse of the 'too librul' vote.
The poll found that the majority of Toomey's supporters, about 60 percent, see themselves as voting against Specter. Meanwhile, 72 percent of Specter voters say they are voting for him, as opposed to voting against Toomey.
They may not know what they want, or who it is they are voting for, but they don't want no libruls!
I like Spector's chances. As I've opined before, I think Toomy could help Bush in Pa. As much as I'd like to retake the Senate, I'll take Kerry and Spector, over Bush and any of them. Besides, if Spector comes out of this with that many repubs thinking he's too librul, maybe they'll just stay home this November.