Quick show of hands: how many of you really believe that the Bush Administration isn't pulling out all the stops for a war (limited or otherwise) against Iran?
That's what I thought...
If we want to stop these nuts from launching another (read: more deadly and more costly) war in the Middle East, then the time for us to act is now. The good news, though, is that stopping this war isn't as hard as it seems. Follow me below the jump to find out how.
As we speak, the Republican machine is building momentum in favour of its war in Iran. They're not doing it with facts, of course, but with the only tool they've ever known: propaganda.
Mike S and Meteor Blades have written diaries over the past few days detailing the upswing in the GOP's propaganda machine. The main message is that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Adolf Hitler, and since only the world's most evil and soulless people wouldn't want us to stop Hitler, then anybody who doesn't want to go to war against Iran is just as bad as anybody who would've let Hitler have his way.
That's a pretty powerful message, and as these two Kossacks have documented, it's one that's being pumped into every American home, car, and business at full blast right now. Republicans have clearly begun the battle to take us to war.
But all hope is not lost. The Wingnut Tribune is reporting that the Council of Foreign Relations was briefed recently on our plans to attack Iran. This itself isn't amazing news, nor terribly hopeful news, but the last paragraphs in their article are the key to stopping this:
At the Council on Foreign Relations discussion, Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA operative in the Middle East and now with the American Enterprise Institute, said the Bush administration would wait three months to determine whether the Security Council was prepared to sanction Teheran. In July 2006, Gerecht said, the military option would undergo open debate in Washington.
"We have not had that debate," Gerecht said. "We are going to have that debate. I think we should have that debate sooner, not later, so we don't have to get bogged down."
Put the Republican propaganda effort together with a plan to "have that debate...so we don't have to get bogged down" in July, and you can see what's happening.
The Republicans are laying the groundwork for that debate. But as long as it's held on the premise that Ahmadinejad=Hitler, it won't be a debate at all. It'll be a rhetorical massacre because nobody can win a debate when they have to take the position of not opposing Hitler. And that's exactly what Republicans are banking on.
So in order to prevent this war from happening, we have to start right now on a campaign to reframe this "pre-debate debate." We must lay our own rhetorical groundwork, on our own terms and not theirs, that will allow us to move into the "real debate" in July with the national discourse in our favour. And make no mistake: we must succeed in laying our groundwork now, or we will fail when war is openly discussed three months from now.
The way I see it, these three elements will be critical in winning the pre-debate debate:
1) Dismiss the Ahmadinejad=Hitler rhetoric at every turn.
This doesn't mean that you defend Ahamdinejad. In fact, it means quite the opposite. What we have to do is reframe opposition to him on terms that are favourable to us, but at the same time make the Hitler comparisons seem totaly inappropriate.
Here's a good example:
Wingnut: Ahamdinejad is a modern day Hitler, and we must do everything in our power to stop him!
Democrat: Calm down, chicken little. It's time for you to stop panicking and get on board with Democrats who want to confront Iran with a strong, well-thought-out plan to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. We heard the same ranting about Iraq in 2003, and the last thing we need is the same wild-eyed incompetence guiding our approach to Iran.
See how easy that was? This tactic does two major things. First, it paints the Ahamdinejad=Hitler comparison as bat-shit insane. Which it is. The focus is not on defending Ahamdinejad, nor is it on explaining how he and Hitler are different. Doing either of those two things is an instant loser. Notice how our Democrat in this scenario never even mentioned Hitler. He chose his language so as to paint the wingnut as a panicky fool who's advocating something irrational because his head isn't screwed on straight - and it presents a level-headed Democratic response in contrast. The second thing it does is equate war against Iran with war against Iraq in terms of incompetence and exhaggerations. Nobody wants another Iraq, so the key is to subtly point out that war against Iran will be executed as poorly as war against Iraq was, and that people who argue for its urgency are going to be proven just as wrong as they were before. (this comparison is important, and is discussed at length below)
2) Emphasize Bush's weakening of the military.
We need to constantly remind people how overstretched our military is because of Iraq and Afghanistan. Don't mention this in the context of Iran. The key is to plant the notion that the military is at a breaking point, that way whenever people hear about another war they will make the connection on their own.
"We can't go to war with Iran because our military is already stretched too thin." makes you sound like a defeatist, and make no mistake the Republicans will take every opportunity to point this out because nobody likes a defeatist. If you tell people "we're gonna lose," they will instantly dislike you. Even if it's true, they prefer to have sunshine blown up their asses.
"The Bush Administration has stretched our military to the breaking point - it will take us years to rebuild it and get it back to the unstoppable fighting force it was before the war in Iraq." shows people that you are somebody who cares about the military and takes our nation's defenses seriously. People respect those who take our defense seriously and care about our troops. If you blame Bush for breaking the military, and you emphasize rebuilding it, then that makes him look bad and you look good.
We want people to make the association between "broken military" and "we'll lose if we attack Iran" on their own. If you tell them this, then you look like somebody who doubts our strength and has no faith in our power. If they figure it out on their own, though, then they'll fancy themselves clever and, at the same time, come to despise people who are willing to be reckless with what little strength we do have left. When people are concerned about our military being overstretched, they will not take kindly to anyone who proposes sending them into battle elsewhere.
3) Point out the Bush Administration's incompetence at every opportunity.
People know he's incompetent in certain contexts, but what we need is an effort to unify those contexts together and illustrate a habitual pattern of incompetence.
The American people need to assume that anything this administration tries to do will be screwed up.
When you talk about Iraq, compare it to New Orleans. When you talk about Donald Rumsfeld, talk about Mike Brown and Harriet Miers. When you talk about the War on Terrorism, talk about Bush's failure to reform social security.
Link the various episodes of incompetence into a narrrative that will make people scared shitless of Bush leading us into another war. I know it sucks to have to use fear as a motivator, but in this case it's well-founded: everyone really SHOULD be afraid of Bush taking us into another war!
If the opportunity arises, make direct comparisons like "We don't want to see Iran turn into a repeat of the administration's failures in Iraq and New Orleans." But if you don't get those kinds of chances, something like this will hit the bullseye:
"Our military is doing the best it can in spite of abysmal leadership from the Bush Administration. Every day in Iraq is like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, and even though Mike Brow - excuse me, Donald Rumsfeld - who am I kidding, both of them are equally incompetent - but even though Donald Rumsfeld is making mistakes every day, our troops are doing the best job they possibly can. God help those brave men and women - they need more bad decisions from George Bush like New Orleans needs more hurricanes."
The first part of that quote speaks for itself - but the last line is crucial. Without saying it, you can equate war in Iran with another hurricane hitting New Orleans. The people don't need to have it spelled out in order to know how disastrous that would be.
: :
SHIFT THE DEBATE IN OUR FAVOUR NOW, AND WE CAN PREVENT THIS WAR IN JULY.
These are just three suggestions. There are dozens more ways. The key is to begin TODAY. Every day that Republican comparisons to Hitler continue is another advantage that the Republicans will have on us come July.
We know war is coming. The wingnuts know war is coming. Every American knows that war is coming. The only reason we're not hearing about it now is because the Bush Administration is working so hard to set the groundwork. They intend to win this debate before it's even started by having it on their terms. We must not let them.
We must win the pre-debate debate. If Americans A) think comparing Ahmadinejad to Hitler is unreasonable and doesn't solve the problem, B) are concerned about our broken military, and C) shit their pants every time George Bush says he has a new idea, then we can prevent this war from happening.
But if Americans get riled up by the drums of war and think that the only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes is to fight them like we fought the Nazis, then they will be willing to throw all reason and experience out the window and follow the Shrub into yet another catastrophe - and this time we won't be fighting a paper tiger that has no military and no allies.
If all of this doesn't convince you that we need to win the war of language, and only naked ambition will motivate you, then consider this:
If we go to war with Iran and Democrats are unorganized in their opposition, then we will have a repeat of the 2002 midterm elections. Republicans will GAIN seats, not lose them, and our party will be decimated. All of the hard work we've done, all of our frustration and sweat and tears, all of the time we've spent opposing this madness will be worth NOTHING. We will have lost not only the election, but also the battle for our country.