This is going to be a tricky diary to write because tensions are really high and when tensions are this high, humans don’t make the most rational decisions. This diary is an attempt to thread the needle with what I hope is a rational take on events.
Let me start off by saying I wasn’t the biggest Joe Biden supporter in 2020. In fact, of the “real” candidates in the race at the time he was at the very bottom of my list (Kamala was second to the top for me).. but he proved me wrong, and so very wrong. He is without question the single best president of my 56 years on this planet and I am privileged and honored to call him my candidate now.
On top of that, I firmly believe Joe is a good man, that matters a whole lot to me.
I have been a fervent champion of two main beliefs:
1. We could put a potted plant on the top of our ticket and still have a better-than-average shot of beating Trump as long as the Democrats stick together. I believe this because our voters are righteously PO’ed about Dobbs and scared crapless about the demise of democracy.
2. Removing Joe from the ticket at this stage in the race is madness.
That said, after coming down with Covid I feel the odds might be higher than I wanted to believe that Joe is going to drop out of the race. In fact, I believe the odds of Joe dropping out before the convention are actually a good deal greater than 50% at this point. This is the first time I believe that he might actually step away from the race.
Why do I believe this is the case?
Well, some of it is based on reporting about what Biden has been saying behind the scenes. Apparently, he has started asking if Kamala can win which is an abrupt change from his previous discussions. Part of that is based on reports that a letter is circulating in Democratic operatives giving Biden a graceful way to step down after his Covid diagnosis. And part of it is the fact that some really high-level Democratic leaders are coming out publicly.
The counterargument is going to be “he said he isn’t going to drop out.” My counter to that is, sure, but what was he going to say? And, getting Covid gives him a way to gracefully back away.
Sooooooooooooo….…………..
Let’s assume there isn’t much anyone on this site can do to change events. I still support him 100% but whatever choice Joe Biden makes is up to him and the people around him. So let’s talk about what happens IF Joe decides to step down.
Again, I am not saying this is good or bad, I am only saying that we need to face reality, it is a much higher possibility now that Joe isn’t going to be at the top of the ticket than it was just a week ago.
1. UNITY is key
No, I don’t love that Adam Schiff called for the president to back away from the campaign…. but for fuck sake people, he isn’t a corporate sellout or “just as bad as the Republicans” because he has a different opinion than most of us do.
I have been studying music for 40+ years, and I am positive I know more about music composition, theory, and performance than Adam Schiff…. but that’s because I have decades of experience in that area.
It would be awfully Dunning Kruger-like of me to assume I know more than Adam Schiff does about politics… him being in that career for decades and me never stepping foot inside any state or federal house or senate chamber over the course of my lifetime.
I have to assume the people calling for Mr. Biden to step down are doing so because they know something I don’t, not because they are “Republicans in Democratic seats” or something. Saying Nancy Pelosi is a “Republican” is absurd.
I think we just need to get back to the point where we are not devolving into name-calling against people CLEARLY ON OUR SIDE for no other reason than we disagree with them.
No, Adam Schiff isn’t a “secret Republican”, Nancy Pelosi isn’t “working with the billionaires” and Hakeem Jeffries isn’t a sell out.
We have to accept that people in our party have different opinions and while we may not agree with them, we also have to accept that their opinions don’t make them our enemies. AND we have to accept that professionals know more about their industry than we amateurs do.
Either way, no matter who is “right” and who is “wrong” we need to stop pointing fingers and just realize that we are all trying to do what we think is best to stop Trump and Project 2025… just because we don’t agree on the best path forward doesn’t mean some of us are “working to get Trump elected” which is one of the most bat shit crazy things I have heard about Adam and Nancy.
Complaining about Adam ruining our unity and then calling him a traitor and Nancy a “Republican” is hypocritical, isn’t it? I mean, that’s just as unity-breaking as what we claim they are doing. Let's step back from the edge a bit on the name-calling.
2. I might be wrong
I think we always need to be ready to admit that we might be wrong about anything in life.
Maybe shaking up the ticket at this point wouldn’t be a bad thing? Or at least not as bad as we (myself included) are thinking.
I still believe it would be a mistake, but I also don’t believe the 1968 convention is a like-for-like analogy either. We are not in a shooting war costing tens of thousands of American lives, we have a clear-cut and excellent VP ready and waiting to step in, and many Americans are ready to vote against fascism no matter who is nominated.
Furthermore, the Hope Springs Eternal diary the other day talked about hearing from Democratic voters that their top concern is Biden’s age. Is this concern because of the media firestorm and Democratic leadership or some other reason? It doesn’t matter! That horse has left the barn because this is already top of mind for voters now. We have to be honest with ourselves, the race shouldn’t be as close as it is and something is causing that below the surface.
On top of the above, I also have to admit that the only thing the GOP has against Biden is his age. They lost the argument about the economy because voters are waking up to the idea that things look pretty good, their complaints about the borer are falling on deaf ears for the most part, they can’t attack Joe’s foreign policy other than to complain about Ukrain funding but most Americans are on Joe’s side there. No, their single biggest attack is around Joe’s age, maybe taking that away from them isn’t a bad thing.
I could be wrong in my former thinking. Maybe the shakeup would create a lot of energy in the Democratic base. None of us know the future, but I can’t say putting her at the top of the ticket WILL fail, I have to admit that it’s only my own fear that has me worried.
3. We are in good hands
I firmly believe in Kamal Harris, she was my second pick in 2020. I support her 100%. If Biden does step down there is no other option so this talk about “who would replace him” is kind of creating a strawman argument against the whole idea.
I absolutely do not buy the arguments saying that America isn’t ready to vote for a woman president.
The argument is usually based on some version of “look what happened to Hillary” but that fails to take into account that Hillary had decades of manufactured baggage to overcome and she STILL won the popular vote, and almost won the EC as well.
We forget just how hard the GOP went after Hillary. I am NOT saying what they vilified her for is accurate, I am just saying that they were successful in planting doubts in American voter’s minds.
Kamala does not have that baggage. The GOPs attacks on her have gone wide of the mark and even then, they don’t have decades to let their twisted talking points infect the public. Furthermore, many MANY women and POC are incensed at the GOP right now and we know the GOP will step on that landmine over and over when attacking Kamala. Their attacks could actually end up being a net positive for “Team Right Side Of History” aka, Democrats.
On top of everything else above, and again, I say this as a guy who LOVES Joe Biden, we have to admit that Kamala is a much better debater (it’s only going to hurt Trump if he refuses to debate her/it’s going to be a disaster for him if he does) and a much better speaker at this point in time. Joe was always a questionable debater and speaker when he was younger, he was always more of a blue-collar “get things done” politician than an inspirational orator. I believe Kamala is better at all that stuff even on Joe’s best day, and Joe’s best days in this area are far behind him.
Kamala would be really good on TV shows and she would get a lot of unpaid advertising from all the interviews. If Biden is mostly ignored until the press finds something negative, Kamala will be a media darling for a number of news cycles.
And maybe more importantly than anything else, I honestly believe Kamala has a much more aggressive mindset than Joe. I believe she is part of the newer generation of Democrats that don’t have a first-impulse instinct to reach across the aisle. I just think she is going to be a lot more willing to go on the offense and to brag about the administration's accomplishments than Joe has been up to this point. People like fighters on their team and I believe Kamala just comes across as that type of leader, more so than the “unifier” that Joe built his reputation on.
Face it, Democrats are scared, and rightly so because Project 2025 is a shitshow. When people are scared they don’t want to hear about unifying they want to hear about fighting back (in a purely political sense obviously). I don’t know much, but I do know that Kamala is much more a “fighter” than a “unifier” and maybe that’s exactly what we need right now.
4. We are probably overthinking things
The Democratic base is fired up…. but I think they are fired up to vote against Trump as much or maybe more than they are about any candidate on our side. This is backed up by the fact that the DCCC has just released donation numbers that show the highest donation amounts in its history. Voters don’t give money to campaigns unless they believe in the cause and they think their candidates can win.
I mean really, we think that the core of our party, African American women are not going to vote for a minority woman candidate?
And to this idea that independents will never vote for her, I remember hearing exactly the same arguments about Obama in 2008… how did that turn out.
5. The GOP isn’t ready for this
The GOP isn’t ready for something this big to happen. They were counting on attacking Biden’s age until the election. They don’t have any good attacks lined up against Kamala and their typical smear campaigns usually take years to pay off, not weeks or months. They have been building the “Joe is too old” argument for 4 years now, it’s going to be hard for them to shift gears quickly.
This isn’t to say they will not attack Kamala if she is at the top of the ticket. They obviously will. I am just saying that these attacks are going to be a lot less successful because they haven’t planted that seed years ago.
_______________________
So, do I like the idea of Joe stepping down? Not exactly, I think it’s pretty late in the race do do that.
But do I think it’s going to happen no matter what? I do think it will probably happen yes.
Do I think that spells doom? No, I absolutely DO NOT think that. In fact, at the end of the day it might turn out to be exactly what we needed to do? I honestly don’t know the future but I don't think it's as bad as people believe it is.
I think it’s crazy to even consider anyone else, Kamala will be the party leader if/when Joe steps down, and I am HIGHLY confident in her at the top of the ticket and in our voters' ability to understand what is at stake.
Last point
Don’t hate, think rationally about YOUR role in unifying or dividing the party, and support Team Blue no matter who!