“She's got diamonds on the soles of her shoes.”
– Paul Simon
Kindly Note: This is a Daily Kos Series on a technical paper that I recently completed. To see a list of the other entries in this series, please click the link below. Thanks!
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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ESSENTIAL QUESTION
So far, we have described all of the spaceships and equations needed to operate and maintain a substantial cislunar tourism program. Normally, the next step would be to describe the spaceport facilities and the orbital space station. However, we have left out the most important ingredient of all, which will now be addressed by this chapter, since it effects the order in which the various components of our space tourism program are assembled.
This vital ingredient can be summed up by the Standard Rocket Science Joke:
Q: What makes rockets fly?
A: Funding.
This unfortunate axiom must be addressed before any space mission can ever leave the ground.
An excellent example of this phenomenon in action is the Lockheed VentureStar. Back at the close of the 20th century, engineers had completed the design of the X–33 proof–of–concept vehicle of the VentureStar and were in the middle of construction when the program was canceled due to a lack of continuous funding. It is true that some technical issues needed to be resolved, and at the time it seemed insurmountable. However, these technical issues would have eventually been worked out. The VentureStar would have been an excellent replacement for the U.S. Space Shuttle, but was not, having been decreed to be too expensive to build.
However, going into space was and is always going to be very expensive.
The essential question thus becomes: where will the startup money come from for our adventures in outer space?
There exist three different possible funding streams, each one effecting the order of assembly.
- Government
- Billionaire Individual(s)
- Crowdfunding
The problem with government funding is that the parts of the whole are subjected to local politics, which in turn causes needless delays and increases costs. This is true for any nation on planet Earth, not just the U.S.
The problem with billionaire benefactors is that they are hyper–focused on profit, and would be more interested in stock buybacks than in a vision of a grand utopian future. This is true for the vast majority of billionaires.
The problem with crowdfunding is that it involves many people who expect something in return for their generosity. In our case, T–Shirts and ballcaps are not going to be enough. We would have to find something else that is tantalizing enough to get people's attention.
The first two options are non–starters, which leaves crowdfunding as the only choice.
This option requires a different approach to the program. Most of the space hardware will be needed in order to give crowdfunding investors something worthwhile for their money.
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COST ANALYSIS
In any crowdfunding campaign, there is always a gift that the investor expects to receive when donating to the cause. Instead of a gift, however, we will be offering cash, with a high Return On Investment (ROI).
We estimate that it will take four years to complete the spaceport. We will offer an ROI of 100% for every year that we keep their money. Therefore, the crowdfunding investor will make a 400% ROI; one dollar invested yields five dollars in return.
ROI = [(New – Old) / Old] x 100
= [(5 – 1) / 1] x 100
= [4] x 100
= 400%
It will be marketed as a way for ordinary people (read: non–billionaires) to become space entrepreneurs. Any amount will do. If a person wants to invest $100, then in four years they will receive $500. They will be making a profit from space!
We estimate that the entire tourism space program, which will include a robust space shuttle flight schedule, a sprawling spaceport, a space station, and a lunar base, will cost $200 billion. The program will be constructed in two phases, with each phase costing half of the total.
Phase I operations can be broken down into six categories. Each category includes all of the associated support facilities, including manufacturing plants, refurbishing complex, etc.
1. Reentry Vehicle
- RV Manufacturing
- RV Hanger
- RV Processing
- Payload Processing and Loading
- Office Spaces
- Mission Control Center
- Ready Rooms
- Astronaut Training
- Flight Simulators
- Business Offices
- Food Preparation
- Laundry
- etc.
- RV Ferry
- C–5A Galaxy Cargo Aircraft
- RV Ferry Portable Aeronautics Cockpit
- VEM
- RV Launch and Recovery
- RV Ground Transport System
- RV Launch Pads
- 10,000–foot Runway
2. Orbital Vehicle Core
- OV
- RL–10 Rocket Engine (Contracted out)
- PM
- Propellant Output Docking Collar
- LV
3. Intelligence Module
- OV
- PM
- LV
- CV Core
- CV "Saddlebag"
- Propellant Output Docking Collar
- UV
- Airlock
- Inchworm Remote Manipulator System (RMS)
4. Cislunar Vehicle
- CV Core Manufacturing
- CV "Saddlebag"
5. Crew Module
- CM1_4–4 Manufacturing
- Garage
- Emergency Airlock
6. Other
- C–21A Executive Aircraft
- CH–53D Helicopter
- Spacesuits (Contracted out)
- Water Pipeline
- Solar Power
- Photovoltaic Modules
- Batteries
- Hardware
- Firefighting Facility
- Hospital Facility
- Bills
- Payroll
- Utilities
- Insurance
- etc.
The cost of the six categories is summarized in the Table below.
1. Reentry Vehicle |
$50,000,000,000 |
USD |
2. Orbital Vehicle Core |
$10,000,000,000 |
USD |
3. Intelligence Module |
$10,000,000,000 |
USD |
4. Cislunar Vehicle |
$10,000,000,000 |
USD |
5. Crew Module |
$10,000,000,000 |
USD |
6. Other |
$10,000,000,000 |
USD |
Total Phase I Cost |
$100,000,000,000 |
USD |
Crowdfunding $100 billion will be a tremendous challenge. We propose to crowdfund half of that, or $50 billion, even though that is still a Sisyphus hurdle. All monies collected will be deposited into an interest–bearing account. We permanently keep the money if and only if we reach the $50 billion target.
If we do NOT secure the full amount, we refund everyone's money with interest.
If we do receive the $50 billion investment, a 5:1 payback means that we would have to raise $250 billion just to pay back all of the investors.
The other $50B of the $100 billion needed for Phase I will come in the form of a loan from a bank that is friendly to space startups. We will borrow $75B using the $50B raised as collateral, with a payment of $6.25 billion every year for 25 years. The first four years will cost $25 billion, so we will deposit that amount into an interest–bearing account. We now have $100 billion for our startup.
Total Startup = Crowdfunding + Bank Loan – 4 years of Loan Payments
= $50B + $75B – $25B
= $100B USD
We want to retire the bank loan in four years, so we would have to raise an additional $75 billion.
We will also need the other half of the $200 billion price tag, so add another $100 billion to the pile for Phase II.
Phase II operations can be broken down into three categories, which will be discussed in future diaries:
- Earth Orbit Station
- Lunar LOX Facility
- Lunar Surface Station
The cost of the three categories is summarized in the Table below.
Earth Orbit Station |
$45,000,000,000 |
USD |
Lunar LOX Facility |
$20,000,000,000 |
USD |
Lunar Surface Station |
$35,000,000,000 |
USD |
Total Phase II Cost |
$100,000,000,000 |
USD |
This last Table sums everything up.
Crowdfunding Payback |
$250,000,000,000 |
USD |
Loan Retirement |
$75,000,000,000 |
USD |
Phase II Funding |
$100,000,000,000 |
USD |
Total Payback |
$425,000,000,000 |
USD |
We would need to raise $425 billion after we receive the initial $50 billion.
An audacious amount of money to be raised calls for an audacious plan to raise it.
Our audacious plan is this: we return approximately 18,000 kilograms of soil from the lunar surface and sell the material for the equivalent price of a very nice diamond.
Hence the term "Lunar Diamonds." (a better name is probably "Lunar Pay Dirt")
We would need to sell the lunar diamonds for an average of $4,725 per carat to generate $425 billion.
So, to sum everything up, we raise $50 billion through a crowdfunding effort, borrow an additional $75 billion to start up the program, and then make enough money to pay everyone back by landing on the Moon and returning random lunar rocks and dirt to sell at auction.
An audacious plan indeed.