I’m posting my Version 1 Electoral College map here. My map is 359 Dem to 179 Gop. I wrote a bunch of cool notes below on the race to give some accuracy to everything.
This is my early map based on my assumptions. My map has Obama’s 2012 map + NC + AZ + Omaha (NE-1 split delegate). I don’t see Georgia being a swing state until I see a poll that gives Hillary near 30% of white voters. She’s around the 20%-22% rage.
I’m a Sanders supporter that predicted he would win between 18-23 states, but couldn’t win the nomination without black support. (I will post electoral Chloropleth map in Excel VBA with swing state projections soon).
Professionally speaking, I have a data science background in ( Supply Chain analytics, systems analysis, commercial finance) for global companies. Also, I have done data micro-targeting on a paid level congressionally (helping a CT congressperson win CT-2); & a volunteer data basis for Obama’s primary win in Connecticut. I feel like I can connect the dots here .
(I wish I had Rayid Ghani’s connections where he was Obama’s top public policy data guru for micro-targeting efforts). Personally speaking; being a gay male I take the presidential elections seriously on many levels because it impacts me.
Key Influential assumptions: (data based recent polling iterations & 2012 CNN exit polling)
VP choice — (most likely Warren or Kaine). But it could be someone else (less likely). Trump- very unclear (most likely a male) so very little crossover appeal .
Driving Race Factors: (Women, Latinos, White--(Educated/Non Educated Gaps), Regional impacts, millenials, LGBT, turnout, 3rd Party and/or Bernie or Bust a-holes, Turnout, Hillary Operations advantage).
Gun debate- what impact does this have on the race? Yougov data shows women support gun control measures by 10%-15% over men on every type of measure (assault weapons, clips size, semi automatic weapon modifications, & over gun control). And Republicans as expected support any measures way less than Democrats and considerably less than Indies.
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Exit Polling- there is statistical evidence that 2012 exit polling overestimated race, age, education of electorate. Take it with a grain of salt.
Turnout & Demographics- Racially --2016 may look what 2012 did when correcting for the racial demographic biases. Gender basis- 53% women/ 47% men. (Florida stands-out being near 55% women). Some regional impacts in Appalachia.
nymag.com/…
Women
a) Overall GENDER GAP- Biggest negative driver in election Trump’s public comments on women (June Bloomberg Showed women 60% plus negative here). Most likely best chance to set the largest in last 50 years.
b) Female Republicans swing states/swing districts- This is driving cross-over appeal from Republican women. (Side note my money is a retired female Republican that’s liberal as hell & finds the National GOP insane). She’s with her. (She voted for Obama 2x).
Best examples : latest Iowa PPP- Hillary 15% of Republicans to Hillary (most likely female repubs)/ Axiom Strategies (Run by Ted Cruz’s manager polled Loudon County: 18% Republicans for Hillary). I use to live in Ashburn, VA (Loudon county). 70% of the population there is planned communities tied to economic output of the government. Culturally; it’s very educated (50% levels plus in many areas) , socially liberal, & rah rah Hillary.
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c) Single Women — 2012 23% of of voters / voted 67-31 for Obama.
d) Women by race- Romney’s 14 point white women gap for GOP has evaporated :because his 6-7% point with white women w/degrees is now double digit lead for Hillary. Hillary potential for 80% of Latino women/90% plus Black women.
Latino Vote
Latino decisions incredible (live-phone) bilingual polling methods drilling down on country of origin, Mexican/Non Mexican, Cuban, & Puerto Rican cultural factors playing into the decision. Best qualitative Latino polling data. Shows Mexican latino based states (NV/CO) in the 80% range for Hillary. Trump’s support ceiling seems to be mid 10’s in those areas.
Florida- seems to be more friendly to Trump with the Cuban Latinos, but based on polling low 20’s at best. Maybe, Rubio can con Cubans into supporting Trump. Trump said he opposed the Land policy there. Rubio makes this a potential wildcard.
Arizona — wildcard explained below
www.latinodecisions.com/...
www.pewhispanic.org/…
www.politico.com/…
LGBT Vote
If you separate the straights from “The Gays” that was the difference for Obama. The 5% of LGBT voters they supported Obama 76% to 22% . There are many indications Hillary will get above the 80% line based on small polling done of LGBT voters. (Personally speaking; less than 5% of gay folks I know are for Trump. And the very few gay Bernie or Bust folks in my extended gay circle are getting scolded for that bullshit).
The LGBT population is between 4%-5% in (CA, OR, WA, RI, SD & a few others). But where it could impact the races is AZ (3.9%) & FL (3.5%). These are estimates , but when you combine are the chaos /threats on LGBT rights it will matter in those states. Trump was screaming like a director on the set of an action scene, & Rubio was a just a douche period voting against all the gun bills.
Note: Nobody in the gay community I know believes Trump is anti-gay. I’ve known people that have worked with his office & that’s not the case. But everyone sees his rhetoric on court appointments hedging bets with pleasing evangelists at the same time. And now his pivoting attempting to gain LGBT voters by pitting us against other groups is bad politics.
www.nytimes.com/…
blogs.wsj.com/…
www.lgbtmap.org/...
Bernie or Bust
I have no idea to predict what minority of these folks will go the full asshole by supporting 3rd party candidates. It doesn’t matter really if you’re in New York , or California. But in the swing states; it matters & I can’t see crowd being greater than 20% in those locations. I’m guessing the number shrinks because Bernie wants his convention television slot.
New Electoral Map
The map is showing new trends and impacts here in many different directions. There are some blue states where Hillary may outperform Obama, and others where it’s the inverse trend. Here’s my stab at it. I list 2012 turnout rates. This is where the operational ($), data science, & digital prowess make here differences. Here are the high level notes: Not sure how early voting plays out.
Tight Battlegrounds
- NC - The polarized bathroom state. We rescind local gay protections at the city level because the GOV is not the HR director. This race is a turnout game between educated liberal whites/AA bloc/Latinos vs GOP. NC are micro tech/education/banking bubbles with a shit ton of bubba zones in burbs/rural areas. Seems like a state where Hillary could pick up some female Republicans.
- AZ- one (R) pollster has Hillary up 5 another private poll (leaked of course) has her down 3. This state politically is one place Chuck Todd mentioned Gary Johnson could reek havoc. Trump has no operation there yet now. Exit polling showed 18-28 go from 17% to 26% while 65+ went from 18% to 12%. (no idea how accurate this is now). 20%-23% Latino . 60% Maricopa 60% of population. (Turnout game here & some female Republicans going to here).
www.pewhispanic.org/...
Lean Hillary Battlegrounds
- PA white educated voters 43% White No Degrees 33% Turnout . Turnout (60%) — Senate race makes race more interesting here. It’s hell alot of Alabama with Philly to the right/Pittsburgh to the Left. Can Trump pull off the massive upset? Fuck no! due to 940k ish Dem over GOP advantage (due to Obama folks registering folks there). Not many indies here.
- OH- white educated 37% / white non educated 41% 940k dem advantage which bodes well for a potential blowout. (polling shows no signs of this trend). Turnout (65%) — — Senate race impacts. If Trump pulls off any 2012 swing state Ohio is your 2nd leading candidate with NC. (One Month Early voting).
- IA- the bi-polar political state. Lots of old white people & educated folks too. High turnout state (70%). This state is like WI we elect hard progressives & wing nut assholes.
Verdict: States that look to be lean Hillary with her ceiling is 5 points. Demographics & culture keep these states closer in general.
Can become non-competitive battlegrounds
- VA — Nova 1/3 of the population & government economy tied to everything (defense /tech). Highly educated white gap 42% college degrees/26% no degrees. 30% non-white /20% black. A state where Hillary can do well with female Republicans. Higher Turnout state (67%)
- CO- Mail in ballots , tech area where west coast progressives move to, & a younger population. Plus, it’s 15 Latino (mostly Mexican). CO shows Trump potential ceiling in the mid teens. (Latino Decisions). (Romney got around 25% here)
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FL- The more north you go the more south bubba fuck it is here. The Pandhandle is a weird culture for a gay having visited multiple times. The dem bank vote machine operation in SE Florida (West Palm Beach, Broward, & Dade) + Orange County (Orlando). Orlando is going to have a massive impact here because of Trump’s rhetoric, the NRA, & Rubio being a bitch (voting against the gun votes). The state has 54%-55% women.
Latino Decisions- shows Trump’s ceiling in the high teens to mid 20’s at best (Latino Decisions). (Outside shot for 30% range if Rubio pulled a miracle). But Trump did oppose the Cuban land policy earlier in the primary race. ---— Qunnipiac polling had Hillary up 72-15 with non whites over Trump (which pretty much shows a Latino support level in the low 20’s for Trump). This is because their sample is 14% Black, 14% Latino, 5% other. They don’t break it out between each race so I’m estimating at best.
In a separate Qunnipiac poll; it shows Rubio with 30% of Non-whites over Murphy.
How many Cubans/Female Republicans are going to split their vote for Rubio & Hillary?
Battleground lite
These don’t pass the eye test for battlegrounds. TBD!
New Hampshire/ Nevada/Wisconsin