If you missed it, Bush up 8 in RV's.
The cycle of major national polls since the convention is now over, and despite some strangeness in the partisan makeup of the registered voter pools in several cases, we can now safely say the Bush is ahead by more than the MoE and is in good position. Not great. Good.
There are three reasons for the shift, but the first and second are insigificant (which is why this is NOT a convention bounce, and will take longer to recede):
- Convention
- Swift Boat liars
- Bush's August ad campaign
If Bush goes on to win, I think we can squarely lay the blame on the month of August, when Kerry was dark. Essentially, a screw-up in the Federal Election law. If you talk to undecideds these days -- and I've been to a bunch of focus groups -- you hear over and over and over until you throw up that Kerry is indecisive and a flip-flopper. Problem is, Kerry can't really respond to that except by fighting back, and he had one hand tied behind his back in August.
Nonetheless, let's not panic. We have a couple things in our favor. A couple big things. First, recent political history tells us that Republicans focus in on politics much earlier than Democrats. A big Republican bounce is fairly standard for around Labor Day, and then late in the campaign Democrats start to focus in and suddenly the Democratic candidate "finds his stride." Actually, it has nothing to do with the candidate; it's just the timeline Democratic voters tend to be on. That will come, for sure, and it will erase this bounce. And second, I think turnout will be higher than usual, which can't but help Kerry.
So count me officially worried. I can now see how Bush could win this election, whereas I coldn't before. But unlike down ballot elections, bad poll news doesn't tend to snowball in prez elections, because both money and attention (free media) are always going to be available no matter who's winning.
Stay calm. Work hard. Don't whine about your candidate.