It is very popular for people on this site to quote Intrade (and Iowa Elections Market) as if it matters. The general idea that a market of this sort measures the Wisdom of Crowds is certainly powerful one. There is a frontpage article that is touting an averaged Intrade/IEM/Betfair number. Betfair is the only one of the three that matters.
I think it is not wise to put too much stock in the Intrade price.
I'm going to compare it to the gold standard for internet sports betting, Pinnacle Sports.
Intrade is not an efficient market. Only tiny amounts of money are wagered, with significant barriers to entry. Because of these barriers, a large arbitrage price exists. The mere existence of a stable arbitrage price should be very worrisome.
[Insert cutesy joke about the orange squiggle here.]
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