Obama to Blame for Michigan Ballot Fiasco

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Thursday February 14, 2008 · 10:41 AM PST

2008/02/14 · 10:41

Note: This is cross-posted at MyDD
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Last night, after being challenged by another MyDD poster to provide evidence for my assertion that Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot because he felt he could not compete against Clinton there, I came upon the following column over at Talk Left:

http://www.talkleft.com/...

Now, the Talk Left piece uses sourcing from the Iowa Independent, a collection of journalists and bloggers. The story seems legitimate, as far as I can tell. Here is the original piece:

http://iowaindependent.com/...

Universal

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Tuesday February 12, 2008 · 5:51 AM PST

2008/02/12 · 05:51

This is it; tonight is BHO's big night.

After tonight, there are only two more states whose demographics strongly favor BHO: Mississippi and North Carolina.

After tonight, there are only 4 more pure caucus states (with Texas having a caucus/primary hybrid model): Hawaii (20 delegates), Wyoming (12), Guam (4) and Puerto Rico (55 - in a contest which looks to soundly favor HRC).

Universal

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Monday February 11, 2008 · 2:44 AM PST

2008/02/11 · 02:44

UPDATE: MSNBC claims the two camps report the following superdelegate totals:

MSNBC: Latest eletion news: SD's

HRC: 263 (+20)
BHO: 175 (+19)

I am going to add these figures to my totals, even though it is quite likely either or both camps are inflating their numbers here.

If these figures are accurate, the good news for the Obama camp is that they are now getting SD's at the same rate as Clinton is, which is a decided shift from how the SD's who have committed so far have been trending (about 61% for HRC before these latest additions).
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{Hat tip to (for updated info): Elrod (Tennessee)}

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Sunday February 10, 2008 · 3:49 AM PST

2008/02/10 · 03:49

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[Update: Please see the end of the diary for an EXTREMELY IMPORTANT update]
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Pusillanimous DNC wants to hand Obama the nomination

Unbelievable! The DNC thinks up new and creative ways to disenfranchise Florida voters, possibly in hopes of recreating 2000? What are these mental midgets thinking?!?!

Universal

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Saturday February 09, 2008 · 1:44 AM PST

2008/02/09 · 01:44

((Note: I did not have the chance to make any responses to my diary yesterday which discussed potential rioting in Denver at this year's Democratic National Convention. So if you were hoping for a response from me, please check the diary now as I have had the opportunity to go back and add several replies. I want to thank everyone who rec'd the diary, and who also, obviously, read and saw the same disgusting remarks and images here at Daily Kos which necessitated my writing the diary in the first place. There is no place for violence or threat of aggressive, offensively-oriented physical intimidation towards our own leaders in any Democratic Party which I wish to be a part of, either now or in the future. Thank you. The current diary entry will proceed following the jump.))

Universal

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Friday February 08, 2008 · 10:48 AM PST

2008/02/08 · 10:48

Update: Cross-posted at MyDD
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...prepare to be met not only by legal authorities, but by non-violent Democratic Party members who are 1000% resolved that the Convention will take place without threat or duress to its convening members.

Many of us were around in 1984 when we were VERY pissed about how the superdelegates broke. We dealt with it, because that was the rule when the primary season commenced. And we bitched about it after that primary season ended.

Universal

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Thursday February 07, 2008 · 5:44 AM PST

2008/02/07 · 05:44

(Note: As of 8:45 AM ET 2.7.08, this diary is using THE latest numbers you will find anywhere on the internet; you will not find any more recent numbers than these which are not pure speculation.)
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Super Tuesday is over, but the counting still goes on, unfortunately (because it is so slow. It is, of course, a very good thing that all votes are counted properly).

Every 4th comment or so seems to be 'what is the delegate count?'

This diary is the answer to that question, and the title tells the tale, in a best-case scenario for Barack Obama.

Universal

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Monday February 04, 2008 · 9:59 PM PST

2008/02/04 · 21:59

Note: 1) This diary was begun on 2/1. I have not taken into account hardly any of the more recent polling, diaries, etc. to influence my decision-making here; 2) I also did not get into a lot of congressional district by congressional district (i.e., 4 delegate CD's, 5 delegate CD's, 6 delegate CD's, uneven vs. even delegate CD's, etc.) analysis while preparing this. Those are, admittedly, two significant grains of salt which must be taken into account while reading this diary.
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I'm not going to show all my work here because, frankly, I'm sick of working on this diary and if I don't put it up now it becomes irrelevant. Suffice it to say that I have put a tremendous amount of effort into this piece and though this is a very rough sketch of what -- given the preconditions I set out below -- is likely to happen, it is a very studied one as well.

Hat tip to Pablano's extremely detailed Super Tuesday 1.31 diary where I obtained probably around 40% of my base data.

Universal

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Tuesday January 22, 2008 · 9:31 PM PST

2008/01/22 · 21:31

In a moment which is unlikely to help Barack Obama transcend race, the Illinois senator humorously answered a question posed by a journalist at last night's South Carolina debate.

Obama had been asked about the oft-repeated statement that Bill Clinton was America's "first black president." After a thoughtful and considered reply, the senator concluded his remarks with a joke which might only help compartmentalize him as the "black candidate" rather than the candidate who happens to be black.

Universal

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Monday January 21, 2008 · 7:44 AM PST

2008/01/21 · 07:44

There's a lot of talk these days mentioning 'cutting deals,' about who won't be voting for whom unless such-and-so is made the VP, etc.

You know who it reminds me of?

Joe Bleeping Lieberman.

As in "Please, Joe, we'll kiss your @ss if you enable us to keep our majority. How can I help you, Joe?"

Poll

136 votes Show Results

Of these 3 choices, who do you think has the best chance to be Hillary Clinton's VP pick?

136 votes Vote Now!

Of these 3 choices, who do you think has the best chance to be Hillary Clinton's VP pick?

Evan Bayh

56 votes

Ted Strickland

30 votes

Jim Webb

50 votes

Nevada -- Understanding the Math. Plus more

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Sunday January 20, 2008 · 10:46 AM PST

2008/01/20 · 10:46

[EDIT: Please see nieman's two comments below; some of my assumptions on delegate distribution are incorrect. Clinton's winning the popular vote, however, is still, statistically, almost certainly not incorrect. I'll try to modify my remarks as time/understanding allows. Thanks.]
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Saturday night, Jan. 19 was a long and nerve-riddled evening for many Kossacks. Hillary won Nevada, and then she didn't; Obama lost Nevada, and then he didn't. Hopes were raised, then crushed. And the reverse.

I did an enormous amount of research last night, looking into the mathematical formulations of how the county delegates are awarded in Nevada based on the caucusing. I did my best to relay that information to my fellow Kossacks in two different spots: This diary by Alegre (See comment "Hillary won, period. Here's why" near the end of the page, and it's follow-ups) and this front page post by Kos (See comment "Ok, let's try this again: Clinton won pop. vote" about 3/4 of the way down the page and it's follow-ups).

Universal

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Saturday January 19, 2008 · 11:01 AM PST

2008/01/19 · 11:01

By now, most people have seen the unnerving footage of Barack Obama's interview with the Reno Gazette-Journal's editorial board in which he intimates that Ronald Reagan was a "transformational" figure who "changed...America." The senator also claims that "The Republicans were the party of ideas...over the last 10, 15 years."

Obama Praises Reagan

Republicans...the 'Party of Ideas'

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