Election 08 http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/ gives Obama one hundred percent probability of winning the election. A strong Republican surge could reduce this to ninety-nine percent, and raise McCain's chances of winning to...zero percent.
Assuming, of course, that the state polls used are accurate. And it's what would happen if the election were held today. (Or a bit earlier; the data is from polls up through September 30.)
"The results presented are a direct function of the quality of the state poll data being used. Any biases in this data can lead to misleading and false results, and hence, invalid conclusions. The results of this analysis have been obtained as part of an academic, educational exercise to demonstrate the power of statistics and operations research to analyze data of significant importance and practical interest."
I believe both operations research and statistics have produced inaccurate results at times.
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