The Florida House held a workshop yesterday to reduce the number of plans they are considering. As a result, the number of House congressional maps is down to 1 (link here HB6005), to go along with the 1 map being considered by the Senate (link here).
It's a little difficult to compare apples to oranges between the 2 plans, first because the House and Senate have used different numbering schemes for their district and second, because of differences in district boundaries, especially in central Florida, where most of Florida's population growth has occurred.
However, they are virtually identical in their results, if you look at how Obama performed in the new districts:
Obama >=55%.....8 districts
Obama 50-55%....3 districts
Obama 45-50%....9 districts
Obama <45%......7 districts
As a result, the Republicans should still be able to maintain control of the Florida delegation, despite about a 500,000 voter registration disadvantage in the state. They're able to do this by packing Democrats into African American minority districts, allowing them to create more Republican relatively safe districts.
One of the districts that can be compared between the 2 plans is CD-22, currently held by Allen West. There is very little physical difference between the boundaries of the 2 plans and the Senate plan has CD22 with a 56.1% Obama share and the House plan a 56.9% Obama share. DEM registration advantage in the Senate plan is 40.7% to 33.3% and in the House plan it's 41.3% to 32.8%. Under the current layout, Obama's share in CD22 was 52.1% and the DEM registration advantage was only 36.9% to 36.7%. Any way you look at it, with either plan CD22 becomes much more difficult for West to defend in a presidential election year.
As a personal note, my home under both plans moves from Debbie Wasserman Schult's district into Allen West's district, so I have a vested interest in the outcome of these plans!
Right now the Florida house is expected to finalize their plans next Friday, at which point will begin the reconsiliation process between their plan and the Senate plan. It's during that process we'll likely see the true machinations of the Florida Republican party.
