About that so-called "Trump freezing" and/or "telepromper fail" video ...

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Monday May 20, 2024 · 10:33 AM PDT

2024/05/20 · 10:33

ScreenShot2024-05-20at10.41.54AM.png — I cut his face off because it's not necessary and I'm sick of it. (Getty Images)

I just want to give a major shout-out and acknowledgment to commenter angry marmot, who had the novel idea of actually looking at other examples of Trump’s recent speeches in order to compare them to that clip, leaving this comment under Mark Sumner’s story:

ANGRY MARMOT:

See for instance the laboriously dramatic musical pause-for-effect from 1:26:57 to 1:27:23 here (Waco, March 25, 2023) and from 1:09:42 to 1:10:31 here (Greensboro, March 2, 2024), always before the “we are a nation in decline” line.

Everyone should watch those linked clips before commenting on this matter any further.

They should be required viewing, and everyone here and in the media speculating on what caused Trump’s “freeze” — including me so far — has failed in something really basic.

What those clips show, loud and clear, is that in the so-called “freezing” and “teleprompter fail” video …

Trump is actually doing the exact same thing he always does at that part in his speech.

He doesn’t do one single thing differently:

He builds up to the line “greatest nation in the history of the world.”

The music starts.

He stands for about 30 seconds, looking around, as the crowds cheer wildly and chant his name.

Then he proceeds with the “We are a nation in decline” line.

The only difference in the “freezing”/“teleprompter fail” video is that, while Trump is doing what he always does, with the exact same timing he always uses …

No one cheers and yells his name during those 30 seconds. There is dead silence.

That’s what makes it look weird. He’s acting as if there are cheers going on for about 30 seconds, when there aren’t, and then proceeding, as usual. But if someone overdubbed the usual crowd sounds over those 30 “frozen” seconds, that video would look just like any of his other speeches.

In fact, if there is anything weird about Trump’s behavior in that clip, it is that he’s NOT doing anything differently. He’s doing everything rigidly and by rote, and not showing enough flexibility to adjust to the change in circumstances.

Or maybe, most likely, the teleprompter was not glitching at all, but working perfectly — the way it is programmed to — doing the usual timing and allowing for 30 seconds of cheering and showing a blank screen for about 30 seconds, forcing Trump to wait for the next line to come up.

The Language of the Night: We Have to Be Better

DrLori for Readers and Book Lovers

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Monday December 26, 2022 · 6:17 PM PST

2022/12/26 · 18:17

Happy New Year, everyone! So ... I have something on my mind tonight.

Earlier this week Catherynne Valente, author of The Orphan’s Tales series and, more recently, The Past Is Red and Comfort Me With Apples, wrote a post on her personal site, Garbagetown: “Stop Talking to Each Other and Start Buying Things: Three Decades of Survival in the Desert of Social Media,” a cri de coeur about internet culture. Tracing the development of life online from the very beginning, she catalogs the ways that the online world has been monetized and hyper-capitalized, and how it’s destroyed the very thing that makes online space valuable: the people, the connections that people make with each other and the friendships we form, friendships that are as real and tangible and powerful as the ones we make in person. It’s well worth the time it takes to read it. Although it’s occasioned by the demise of Twitter, you will recognize sites that, in their time, were as near and dear to you as they were to me, and truths that are immutable no matter the decade.

It made me remember why I was drawn to Daily Kos in the first place: the community. It’s no secret that I was a serial lurker for many years, always thinking about joining and commenting but being too intimidated to do it, always finding that the clever bit I could have added to the conversation had already been said by someone else, and invariably said better. Until the day when one person asked a question that it seemed no one else could answer, and I found my way inside. I found myself, not a stranger, but a welcomed friend.

Valente’s essay it also made me realize why I have been reading my Community Spotlight shifts with a bit of a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. Because our community is slowly turning fragmented and meaner. Long-time friends and colleagues snipe at each other, the caustic comment is more common than the outstretched hand, and the warmth that made this place a refuge for nerds and intellectuals of all interests has ebbed.

I don’t know why and I don’t want to dissect the reasons. They’re multitudinous and complicated, and I really don’t care about them; the effects are what concern me. Because yesterday Angmar, a kinder and gentler person you could not find, found himself hidden and dinged by mods. Angmar, who also drew fire last week for a story about two older women arrested for trapping, spaying/neutering, rehoming or, failing all else, re-releasing stray cats. His comment section filled up with variations on “well, actually they were breaking the law” and “cats murder birds!”, the latter sentiment being utterly beside the point and the former being...well, dick-headed. This is how we hurt each other, either out of superior knowledge, or real life frustations that spill over, or simply because we can get away with it. We are losing humility and care for each other.

One of the very best Kossacks who has graced us with her wisdom is Wee Mama, whose profile contains a phrase to live by: “Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary?” There are times recently when her wisdom has been in mighty short supply, and that is just fucking depressing.

...the only thing of any value the site ever offered was the community, its content, its connection, its possibilities, its knowledge. And that can’t be sold with the office space and the codebase. These sites exist because of what we do there.

[Seriously, the Valente is long, but read it. And weep.]

I really don’t want to go all Howard Beale on y’all (if you don’t get the reference, your favorite search engine will help you). After all, Readers and Book Lovers is still an oasis of shelter in an increasingly rancorous world. But dammit folks, we have to be kinder. Truer. We have to say what it necessary. And this feels necessary right now.

Dem for Peace Unity Group

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Friday October 30, 2020 · 5:39 AM PDT

2020/10/30 · 05:39

no image description available — She is the incredible, awesome, cutest, smartest, sweetest little creature of all time ! I love her so very much ! She is such an amazing, cute, and sweet creature !

Thank you all for your kindness and encouragement and support as I work to get to zero in my substance abuse rehabilitation program. I could not have made the progress we as a team together have made ! I am completely isolated in my apartment. Because I was in an abusive relationship for a long time, my communication with family and friends was cut to zero. Outside of Daily Kos online, I am completely alone. l don’t have anybody I see in person. My medication makes me extremely nauseous and vomit every single day. It gives me insomnia. I have only slept three straight hours continuously six times in over two years. I am normally a public school teacher and I tried to return to teaching, but I was too sick too often to and realized that I could not continue. This has made me unable to work. I reduce two milligrams every two weeks. I started at 32 milligrams and am now at 12 milligrams. I am determined to get to zero so that I can get a normal life back, away from my abusive ex and off of the medication my substance abuse rehabilitation doctor gives me and be able to work.

Due to my lack of sleep and extreme nausea and vomiting, I often feel like I am going crazy. I get very depressed (I have an extensive history of suicide attempts starting from when I was a child). My memory is shot. My mood is often not good because of the medication and the vomiting and the insomnia. I try not to be unpleasant. Unfortunately, I have failed completely at that. I am truly sorry and I apologize to all of those whom I have offended by my rude remarks and lack of patience.

Without the support of the community here, I would not have been able to make the progress I have. I am so grateful to everybody who has tolerated me and encouraged me and help me as I try to get through this. I am very, very sick every day. It doesn’t make it right when I am not as nice as I should be. Thank you so very much for your kindness and your encouragement. Without the kindness of this community, I would not be able to do this. I have no roommates, no friends or family that I see. I am completely alone and isolated while being very sick. In two weeks, I will be 2/3 of the way down to zero milligrams. In two weeks, I will be at 10 milligrams and again I started at 32 milligrams. I will have reduced more than 67% of the way to zero.

*****************************************************************************

Here is the back story on how this happened.

I am responsible for my bad decisions which were wrong. After my divorce, I was emotionally devastated. I was not picky and was desperate to be with somebody. I settled and we were so different , I am much, much younger and I am way, way more educated, and there were many other differences. I had been in a car accident in which I went up in the car in the air 17 or 18 feet and hit a pole, the car flipped twice and landed upside down on a stone gate. I was knocked unconscious. When I came to, I crawled out of the upside down car and stumbled around and I must have passed out since the next thing I remember is being at a hospital. As a result, I get frequent severe migraines and have severe back problems should in my mri. She not only had her own prescription for hydrocodone, but she bought entire bottles of it from her 3 sisters who had their own scripts, she bought an entire bottle from her amputee brother in law, she bought it from her nurse friend and from others. When she offered it to me, I should have said no. That is my own fault. I am responsible for that bad decision. Nobody put a gun to my head. I made an ethically wrong and morally wrong decision. I became addicted.

Once I was addicted, she took full advantage of that. My public school teacher paycheck went straight into her bank account to which I had no access. My teacher retirement went to her. My tutoring money (3 degrees including a master’s degree in mathematics and significant doctoral work) went to her hands. I did all the chores. Her first daughter was taken from her. Her second daughter attempted suicide due to how she was treated by her mother and was also taken from her. Before her second daughter was taken from her, I cleaned her room daily which was filled two to three feet high with dirty clothes and trash. I did the dishes. I took out the trash. I did the laundry. I swept. I mopped. I did everything. At the end, she was not working at all. She constantly and I mean constantly told me, “I hate you ! I hope you kill yourself ! “ . I developed an ulcer from being around her ; I threw up so much blood, it was incredible. I was extremely light headed and so very sick.

I finally realized that I had no choice, but to start substance abuse rehabilitation. I went entirely on my own accord. Nobody told me I had a problem because I was not in touch with anybody; however, I knew that I had a problem. I first went to an in patient facility, Laurel Ridge. However that program was only eight days and I had had this problem for a long time. So, I sought another facility to continue my rehabilitation. I was without the medication that helped limit the consequences of withdrawal. It took a little over 2 weeks to find a clinic. It was so very hard, but I stayed clean the entire time. I went to a new clinic which was outpatient. Then, they put me on 32 milligrams of buprenorphine. Then, I discovered all of the side effects. I have severe acid reflux and developed an ulcer as I related earlier. Therefore, whatever makes a person a little nauseous makes me extremely nauseous and vomit because my stomach lining is destroyed. I could not sleep more than three straight hours at most. I almost always sleep only one continuous hour.

My amazing and super loyal and trusty companion and sidekick, Mighty Little Fluffy the Great, has kept me from ending my life as often as I think about it. We are always around each other. I have the privilege of petting her and brushing her and interacting with her all the time. She is the most amazing, cutest little creature ever ! I feel like I can’t begin to say how much I love her ! I know that she is far greater than I am. That’s obvious ! She is so sweet and so smart and has such a great disposition and she is absolutely gorgeous. She is the greatest ! I was living a life of quarantine far before the novel coronavirus made its appearance in our lives. I have been living a life of quarantine for two years, completely isolated with just Mighty Little Fluffy the Great and my Kossack friends whom I have not met in person. I rarely leave my room although I am trying to improve that. I leave my apartment only to go to my substance abuse doctor and to throw out my trash. Otherwise, I never, ever go outside. I only rent one room in my 4 bedroom and 4 bathroom apartment and none of the other rooms are rented as my previous roommates both moved out. My car doesn’t work. I am completely isolated.

I want to thank everybody here for their kind words and their support while I work to get to zero and hopefully get my life back. Thank you so, so, so, so, so much for your kind words and encouragement. I would not be able to make it through my substance abuse rehabilitation without this community ! Thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here she is beside one of my favorite books which I read and reread, Death on the Nile. I am currently rereading The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump edited by Dr. Bandy Lee. I already read it cover to cover, but I felt compelled to reread certain sections of it. I learned that Donald is an extreme present hedonist in addition to being a narcissist.

‘

Isn’t she so cute !!!!!! She is so sweet ! Whenever she wants something, then she speaks right up !

Here is another picture of Mighty Little Fluffy the Great ! So, so very cute !

Thank you so very much !!!!!!!! Today is National Cat Day or Day of the Cat and Mighty Little Fluffy the Great is the greatest of them all ! In fact, she loves the fact that her dominion has been greatly expanded .

Angmar for Regenerative Culture for an Altered Planet

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Thursday October 22, 2020 · 7:11 PM PDT

2020/10/22 · 19:11

"Deep Ecology's core principle is the belief that the living environment as a whole should be respected"

Deep ecology is an environmental philosophy promoting the inherent worth of living beings regardless of their instrumental utility to human needs, plus a restructuring of modern human societies in accordance with such ideas.

Deep ecology argues that the natural world is a subtle balance of complex inter-relationships in which the existence of organisms is dependent on the existence of others within ecosystems. It argues that human interference with or destruction of the natural world poses a threat therefore not only to humans but to all organisms constituting the natural order.

Deep ecology's core principle is the belief that the living environment as a whole should be respected and regarded as having certain basic moral and legal rights to live and flourish, independent of its instrumental benefits for human use. Deep ecology is often framed in terms of the idea of a much broader sociality; it recognizes diverse communities of life on Earth that are composed not only through biotic factors but also, where applicable, through ethical relations, that is, the valuing of other beings as more than just resources. It is described as "deep" because it is regarded as looking more deeply into the actual reality of humanity's relationship with the natural world arriving at philosophically more profound conclusions than those of mainstream environmentalism.^[1] The movement does not subscribe to anthropocentric environmentalism (which is concerned with conservation of the environment only for exploitation by and for human purposes), since deep ecology is grounded in a quite different set of philosophical assumptions. Deep ecology takes a holistic view of the world human beings live in and seeks to apply to life the understanding that the separate parts of the ecosystem (including humans) function as a whole. The philosophy addresses core principles of different environmental and green movements and advocates a system of environmental ethics advocating wilderness preservation, human population control, and simple living.^[2]

en.m.wikipedia.org/...

Deep ecology embraces both the science of ecology and environmental ethics (that is, proposals about how humans should relate to nature). It is also a social movement based on a holistic vision of the world.Deep ecologists hold that the survival of any part is dependent upon the well-being of the whole

YouTube Video

Dem

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Monday October 12, 2020 · 5:03 PM PDT

2020/10/12 · 17:03

Probably everybody knows this, but I want to post this just in case one person might see it and not have known this

McConnell tried to use Joe Biden to support the new precedent that Moscow Mitch started in 2016, but it’s pure bullshit. Joe Biden only said that he didn’t support nominating a justice while the campaign season is in full swing because that tends to politicize the process. He didn’t say that it couldn’t be done after the election and before the new president takes office. There is nothing in Biden’s comments to suggest that he would have opposed a nomination and confirmation of a new justice before the new president took office because the cause of Biden’s concerns would have already passed, the campaigning would be over.

Based on Biden's words, it appears he would not have objected to Bush nominating someone the day after election day. It would have given the Senate more than two and a half months to vote on confirmation.

That’s from politifact. That destroys any claim by McConnell to rely upon this. Biden’s goal was to eliminate the politicization of this process, but McConnell’s egregious hypocrisy shows that McConnell’s move is political and is about power even if there is no justification for his new precedent. That makes it different. There was no nominee to consider, no vacancy open. It was the end of June when Biden said this, not in February. Biden was one senator, not the majority leader with the backing of his entire caucus. Biden’s opposition was to the nomination, but it is not clear that if a vacancy had occurred and a nomination had been made at that time that the nomination would not have been considered, especially if a centrist were chosen. He only said that the Senate should consider not holding hearings if a judge were nominated to become a Justice of the Supreme Court. He did not rule it out entirely. He was not even in a position to do so. Biden was right that it would tend to get political if done during the campaign season.

The differences, then, are myriad. First, McConnell refused to have a hearing after the election and before the new president took office and Biden never said that he opposed nominating somebody and having a hearing after the election . Second, Biden didn’t rule out having hearings if somebody was nominated . Third, there was no actual vacancy that occurred. Biden was only speaking hypothetically. McConnell acted in a real situation. Fourth, Biden only spoke for himself. He was not with an entire party collaborating together to make consideration of a nominee impossible. For this to be similar Biden would have had to gather around him enough votes to try to stop the nominee if it were in a real situation. Fifth, Biden’s motive was to avoid making the Supreme Court political. McConnell’s egregious hypocrisy shows that he was making it political, an exercise of pure political power even if it revealed he had no integrity or consistency. Sixth, at most, Biden was offering one possible opinion.

Therefore, Biden’s speech in no way promoted what McConnell did or justified it. What McConnell did had no precedent and no justification. Biden didn’t support in his speech doing what McConnell did ; what Biden said in his speech and what McConnell actually did are two completely different things. McConnell was dishonest when he lied and said that Biden’s speech justified his (McConnell’s) actions.

I am halfway to zero on my medication for my medication assisted treatment for substance abuse rehab

Dem for Peace Unity Group

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Sunday October 04, 2020 · 6:14 AM PDT

2020/10/04 · 06:14

Daily Kos and the people here, especially those kind enough to consider me a friend and an ally, is essential to my life. After my divorce, I was emotionally devastated. I had left fundamentalist Christianity and had become a Democrat and then a progressive Democrat after earning my second bachelor’s degree and then starting my master’s degree in mathematics, earning it with honors and then working on my doctorate. I was fortunate to win the academic excellence award from the Department of Mathematics at my university as a doctoral student. At the time of my heartbreaking (for me at least) divorcing, all of my friends were fundamentalist Christians. They all abandoned me. I was friendless and broken. By the time that the divorce was finalized, I was working on my doctorate. I was desperate for companionship. I was not as selective and wise as I should have been.

I met somebody who seemed to be nice at the time. My only requirement was that the person be a Democrat. That was it. However, due to a severe car accident in which I went up in the air 17-18 feet, hit a pole, and the car flipped a couple of times, and landed upside down with me in unconscious on a stone gate. Then I came to and I remember stumbling around after crawling out of the car . Then I must have passed out again. The next thing I knew I was in a hospital. Due to that, I have severe neck and back pain. It doesn’t excuse accepting the medication. That was an act of my volition. It was morally and ethically wrong and a mistake. I made that mistake. The person I was seeing was a walking pharmacy. She had her own prescription for vicodin and bought vicodin from three of her sisters and from a nurse friend and her amputee brother in law and from others. I had never seen so much vicodin / hydrocodone in my entire life. She offered it to me. I should have said no. I did not. I became addicted.

Once I was addicted, I was in trouble. My teacher retirement money went all to her. My teacher paycheck went into her bank account to which I had no access. My tutoring money went to her hands. If I said no, then I would have been incredibly sick. Her first daughter was taken away from her. Her second daughter had severe issues with depression, mainly due to her mother. I cleaned her room which was filled several feet high with trash and laundry daily. I did the dishes. I took out the trash. I did the laundry. I swept and mopped and vacuumed. I did everything. She shouted, “I hate you ! I hope you kill yourself ! “ all the time whenever I was around her. Her second daughter attempted suicide and ended up in a hospital and was taken away from her for a short time.

I realized that I was in deep trouble. I left her and enrolled myself alone and completely of my own accord in Laurel Ridge . This was the end of July of 2018. That in patient treatment center only lasted eight days. I knew I needed more help. I looked for an out patient treatment center. It took me about two and a half weeks to find a new out patient clinic. I stayed clean the entire time. That was incredibly difficult. This clinic is called New Seasons. I missed two days in two years. I stayed clean the entire time. They use a medication assisted treatment approach. I was afraid of methadone. I rarely took anything else other than vicodin/hydrocodone and marijuana. So, street drugs scared me. I chose buprenorphine. I had been taking a lot of hydrocodone for a long time. I was put at 32 milligrams and this became my stable dosage. They keep you on that dosage for a year so that you get used to a life of not getting high.

I had a great counselor. However, he was unintentionally forgetful. I began to try to start my reduction process shortly after a year of my stable dosage. However, one must get approval from the doctor. So, I would ask him to set up an appointment with the doctor to discuss it. He unintentionally kept forgetting to set up the appointment. Because my tests were always clean and I almost never missed going to the clinic, I earned take homes. So, I got to take my medication with me instead of having to go there every day. Thus, I was showing up for an appointment with the doctor and that would be my only reason for going to the clinic that day since I had my takehomes already. The medication was about $540 / month. That happened about a half dozen times.

The medication had severe effects upon me. I already had severe acid reflux. During the abusive relationship, I must have developed an ulcer because I must have throw up several quarts of blood and was extremely light headed. Thus, what caused minor nausea in others caused me to vomit or have extreme nausea daily. It also gave me severe insomnia. I normally sleep an hour at a time. I have slept three straight hours continuously or more six times in two years. I tried to teach, but the side effects from the medication made me retire. I had been at a long term stay hotel. I had little money and no rental history then. I did start my reduction. However, they required me to go there every week if I was going to reduce in order to make sure that my reduced dose was okay. This was going to be a constant requirement. My car stopped working reliably. I had to take uber or lyft to get to the clinic every day. It was too expensive especially with the cost of the clinic and the cost of the long term stay hotel.

So, early this year I moved to a city an hour north of where I lived. I had to do that to cut my rent which it did dramatically. My car became even less reliable. Getting a ride to the clinic and back cost me $120 . The driver had to drive an hour to pick me up, drive me an hour south to the clinic, drive me an hour back to my apartment and then drive an hour back to get back to their city. I was determined to reduce. I could not afford to pay $120 a week every week just to get to the clinic and then $540 a month for the medication. I finally found a regular physician who could prescribe my medication and would only make go there once a month and it was much closer.

The first visit was $500. After that, it was only $250. However, I had to pick up the medication from a pharmacy. I was concerned about how much that might cost. At this time, I had already reduced to 24 milligrams a day. That was 3 pills of 8 milligrams each, every day. Reducing to 22 milligrams would mean more pills. It would 2 pills of 8 milligrams each but also 3 pills of 2 milligrams each. Thus, for a 30 day period, I would be going from 90 pills to 150 pills. Despite the reduction in total milligrams, I knew that this might mean an increase in the cost. I tried to find out how much the medication was. I did not have medical insurance. I could not get a number after an hour debate with them. Finally, I got a number without a prescription discount card. However, then they did not want to tell me how much it would be with the prescription discount card. After all, the quote was $700 for the medication without the discount card which was untenable. Finally, I got a quote of $60 bucks or something like that. So, I go forward at the new clinic and get my first prescription and get it filled at that pharmacy using that discount card. It was at least 50% more than I was quoted, but fine at least it was not $700. Then, I told the pharmacy technician that I was reducing on this medication and that it was urgent that I do so and I needed to verify that even though there would be more pills (going from 90 to 150) that the cost would not go up significantly. Besides, the milligrams per day was decreasing. She confirmed that to me unequivocally. She said it might not go down, but it would not go up. So, the next time I went to the clinic, I told them to start the reduction (my previous reduction had been at the old clinic ie from 32 milligrams to 24 milligrams). I went to the pharmacy and the cost was $225 .I was apoplectic , but at that point I had no choice. This was the entire reason I asked the question last time.

I have continued my reduction since then. Other than when I was teaching (until I just could not continue ), I have lived a life of quarantine for the last two plus years because of how sick the medication makes me. My doctor and I have me reducing at 2 milligrams every 2 weeks. I am at 16 milligrams. I am 16 weeks or four months away from getting my life back. I have one roommate whom I almost never see. I see nobody else. I sleep an hour and then wake up and then sleep an hour and so on. My isolation has led to deepening my depression. I first started attempting suicide when I was 13 years of age. I first started self harm at that time as well. I had a “complex” childhood (ie a very bad one) which I won’t detail here. I started hitting myself as hard as I could in the face and it looked like I was constantly in fights. I began slitting my wrists or cutting my body deeply around that time. The last time that I actually attempted suicide was around a couple of months ago.

Because of my situation, Daily Kos has been invaluable to me. You share my worldview and views on virtually everything. You all mean the world to me. Your support has kept me going. My life is the “Came for the politics, stayed for the community” motto. I came here long before this user name “Dem” . I lost my user name and I could not at that time retrieve my old user. So, I started all over. Thank you for your kindness and your friendship !!! Obviously, I have a very low opinion of myself to say the least. What I think of myself could not be posted. I appreciate the kind words that many here have given me.

I am the the human of Mighty Little Fluffy the Great ! In my view, she is the greatest little creature of all time. I love her more than life itself. She is so smart ! She knows where her wet canned cat food is kept and knows how to ask for it. She uses her stairs and litter box every day. She knows her name ! She is very alert. I once got her a toy that had a string to make a little mouse move. Within ten seconds, she had grabbed the string with her teeth and pulled it and made the mouse move ! It was amazing ! She is so, so sweet ! She is cute beyond compare with beautiful markings. Everybody who saw her at the hotel (the hotel people) knew that it was a great privilege to pet Mighty Little Fluffy the Great ! We are the best of friends and companions !

Dem for Peace Unity Group

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 28, 2020 · 4:03 AM PDT

2020/09/28 · 04:03

Winning Pennsylvania means Biden / Harris wins the electoral college and brings an end to the nightmare !

According to 538, Biden has a lead in the average of polls according to 538 of 4.9 percentage points but far more importantly is at 49.7% in the average of the polls. If Biden gets to 50.1% in Pennsylvania, then Biden wins Pennsylvania. Since Biden is at 49.9% with a lead of 6.9 percentage points in Michigan in the average of the polls and Biden is at 50.7% with a lead of 6.9 percentage points in Wisconsin, then Biden is essentially at 50% or better in both states and unbeatable in both states so long as we turn out our voters in both states. Adding Pennsylvania to those two states and the 232 electoral college votes which is the sum of the value of the electoral college votes of the states that Hillary won in 2016 puts Biden at 278 electoral college votes and he wins.

The point is that winning Pennsylvania likely wins the electoral college for Biden. Pennsylvania is the leading tipping point state. Obviously, NOTHING IS GUARANTEED. We MUST GET OUT OUR VOTE ! But if we do that, then we win.

Hillary’s profound weakness was that her average percentage of the vote in the average of the polls in Michigan was 47%, in Wisconsin was 46.8%, and in Pennsylvania was 46.8%. She never got to 50% in the average of the polls. She won 47% of the vote in Michigan, 46.5% of the vote in Wisconsin, and 47.5% of the vote in Pennsylvania (and her lead in Michigan was only 3.6 percentage points and her lead in Pennsylvania was only 2.1 percentage points). That was her problem. Biden is almost at 50% in Michigan (49.9%) and over 50% in Wisconsin (50.7%) and almost at 50% in Pennsylvania (49.7%).

Trump didn’t get to 49% in any of the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in 2016. However, being at or above 50% in all three states wins the electoral college vote for Biden. Biden’s not only one tenth of one percent away from fifty percent in Michigan, but again he has a lead of 6.9 percentage points in the average of the polls (Clinton’s lead in the average of the polls was 3.6) . So, Michigan is in excellent shape and if we turn out our vote there in Michigan, I don’t see how Biden doesn’t get at least one tenth of the remaining vote and get to 50% there in Michigan and remember Hillary Clinton won exactly the percentage of the vote that she had in the average of the polls .

So, again, Biden wins Michigan if we turn out our vote. Biden is already over 50.7% in the average of the polls in Wisconsin and the difference in the percentage of the vote that HRC won in 2016 in Wisconsin and her share of the vote in the election in Wisconsin was only three tenths of one percent. Even the state polls in 2016 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were accurate. In Pennsylvania, Hillary won seven tenths of one percent more of the vote than her share in the polls ; her share of the vote in Pennsylvania in the average of the polls was 46.8% and her share of the vote in the election in Pennsylvania was 47.5%. It is not a pollster’s job to determine how to allocate the undecided vote which broke heavily for Trump. So, the state polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were accurate in 2016.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
states	hrc poll	hrc	Trump	trump poll	hrc diff	biden	trump	margin	to 50
MI	47.0	47.0	47.3	43.4	0.0	49.9	43.0	6.9	.1
Wi	46.8	46.5	47.2	40.3	0.3	50.7	43.8	6.9	over
pa	46.8	47.5	48.2	44.7	0.7	49.7	44.8	4.9	.3

.Let’s consider the chart above. We can see that the difference between Clinton’s polls and her actual share of the vote in these states was very small, less than 1 percent in each case. We can see that Trump didn’t get above 48.2% of the vote in any of the three states in the actual election. Finally, notice that Biden is only one tenth of one percent from fifty percent in Michigan, he is over 50% in Wisconsin, and he is only three tenths of one percent from fifty percent in Pennsylvania. If Biden gets to 50% + 1 vote in all three states, then Biden wins the electoral college. He effectively shuts Trumps out. Biden is extremely close to getting to 50%+1 vote in all three states. My goal is for us to get Biden over 50%+1 in Pennsylvania.

What I am writing is that we have a chance right now to land a death blow to the Trump campaign if we can just boost Biden to 50% in Pennsylvania. He is so close, 49.7%. He only needs three tenths of one percent to get to 50%. Let’s go for the kill and try to get Biden over 50%+1 in Pennsylvania (and Michigan for that matter) so that Biden can shut Trump out of the electoral college.

.Now, in the next two pictures, you will see two 270 to win graphs. Biden is narrowly leading in both the rural electoral college vote in Maine and leading with a noticeable margin in the second congressional district of Nebraska (NE 02). The sum of the value of the electoral college votes of the states that Hillary Clinton won is 232, but she had five faithless electors which is why her electoral college vote total is 227 (at the bottom, below the graphic they point out how many faithless electors there were for Clinton and in which states) . We don’t have any reason to believe that this will happen this time around. Biden is extremely close to 50%+1 (one tenth of one percent from 50% ) in Michigan and so I have assigned Michigan to Biden. Biden is over 50% in Wisconsin and so I have assigned Wisconsin to Biden. This means that Biden 260 electoral college votes. That’s the situation in the first electoral college vote graph.

Here Biden is at 260 electoral college votes. PA has not been assigned. Notice PA puts Biden over the top.

With Pennsylvania, Biden is at 280 electoral college votes.

.Here, I have simply added added Pennsylvania to Biden giving him 280 electoral college votes and the win.

.It is clear, therefore, that we have many paths to 270 electoral college votes. However, the most obvious path is through winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. We have some good back up plans as the above links and information make clear, but this is the easiest and most clear path for Biden to 270 electoral college votes. We also remember that truly we should have won these states in 2016. After all, President Obama won more votes in each of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2012 than Donald Trump did in 2016 despite population growth. Biden is so close to fifty percent in his average of the polls in Pennsylvania. If we can get Biden to 50%+1 in Pennsylvania, then it’s over and Biden wins the electoral college vote. Getting Biden to 50%+1 in Pennsylvania is a death blow to the Trump campaign. So, I am asking you to please do anything you can (if you can’t because of health reasons or other reasons, it is completely understandable and please don’t) to help Biden win Pennsylvania. This is our opportunity to put a spike in their campaign and to end this disaster once and for all.

Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state at 32.3, followed by Florida 11.6, Wisconsin 9.3, Michigan 9.2 , Arizona 5.8, North Carolina 4.9, Ohio 4.6, Minnesota 3.5%, Nevada 3.0, Colorado 2.8, New Hampshire 2.2, Georgia 1.7, Texas 1.5 , and Virginia 1.3 .

States with the narrowest margins are projected to be : Texas won by Trump by 3.6, Iowa won by Trump by 2.3, Georgia won by Trump by 2.1 , and the rest of the narrowest margin states are all forecast to be won by Biden: Ohio .4 , North Carolina by .8 (Biden forecast to get 50% of the vote), Maine’s second congressional district (the rural one) for Biden by .8 , Florida by 1.4 (Biden forecast to get 50.3% of vote) , Nebraska’s second congressional district (Omaha) by 2.3, Arizona by 2.7 (Biden forecast to get 50.7% of the vote) , Pennsylvania by 4.5 (Biden forecast to get 51.9% of the vote), Wisconsin by 6.2 (Biden forecast to get 52.6% of the vote) , Nevada by 6.4 (Biden forecast to get 52.4% of the vote) , New Hampshire by 6.5 (Biden forecast to get 52.7 % of the vote) , Michigan by 6.9 (Biden forecast to get 52.9% of the vote) , Minnesota by 8.1 (Biden forecast to get 53.2% of the vote), Colorado by 9.1 (Biden forecast to get 53.6% of the vote) and the rest of the blue states are all forecast to be won by double digits by Biden. This would given Biden 353 electoral college votes and Trump 185 electoral college votes.

.Joe Biden himself will be making campaign stops to speak in Ohio and Pennsylvania after the debate.

Washington (CNN)Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will embark on a campaign trip across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania via train that focuses on the economy and working families following this week's first presidential debate in Cleveland. Biden is currently leading Trump in more than a handful of polls taken in Pennsylvania, with the former vice president ahead of Trump by more than eight points in three of them.

To make phone calls for Joe Biden ! To text for Joe Biden ! Team Joe Social Media Tool Kit !

Ready to show your support for Joe Biden on social media and help him become the next President of the United States? We have graphics, videos, frames, and much, much more to help you do it!

Check out the links below to find everything you need, and check back often - we will be constantly updating this page with new content!

Just don’t forget to tag us using #TeamJoe so we can make sure Joe sees your hard work!

Voting Hub

Branding Guide

Team Joe Graphics

Joe Biden Videos (YouTube)

Vote Joe App: IOS & Android

Photos (Flickr)

Policy

.

Here are 15 outstanding US Senate candidates !

1. Governor John Hickenlooper (Colorado)

2. Captain Mark Kelly (Arizona)

3. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon (Maine)

4. Lieutenant Colonel Cal Cunningham (North Carolina)

5. Theresa Greenfield (Iowa)

6. Jaime Harrison (South Carolina)

7. Governor Steve Bullock (Montana)

8. Dr. (physician) Barbara Bollier (Kansas)

9. Jon Ossoff (Georgia)

10. Reverend Raphael Warnock (Georgia)

11. Dr. Al Gross (Alaska)

12. Major MJ Hegar (combat veteran ! Texas)

13. Lieutenant Colonel Amy McGrath (combat veteran ! Kentucky)

14. Mike Espy (Mississippi)

15. Senator Doug Jones (Alabama)

If you can only donate to one candidate, then I would humbly ask you to vote for one of the following three candidates because they are the candidates most likely to give us our fifth senate seat win.

1. Theresa Greenfield

2. Jaime Harrison

3. Steve Bullock .

If you can afford to donate to five candidates, then I would recommend you pick one of the above candidates and then donate to the four candidates who already have a very good chance of winning so that we make doubly sure that we get all five.

1. Governor John Hickenlooper

2. Captain Mark Kelly

3. Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon

4. Cal Cunningham

Dear Readers and Members of Daily Kos:

Please donate to Joe and Kamala via our ActBlue fundraising page for readers and members of Daily Kos.

Trump is the arsonist, Joe the firefighter.

We started today at $37,530, more than three quarters of the way toward our goal of $50,000. If you donated already, thank you!

Please use our ActBlue page to donate to their campaign: A grassroots effort for readers and members of Daily Kos. Solidarity. Bragging rights.

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Everyone:
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mettle fatigue for Pain Patient Empowerment

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Thursday September 17, 2020 · 3:14 PM PDT

2020/09/17 · 15:14

2000 --- Happy People --- Image by © Royalty-Free/Corbis

▓ productionsidetestinggroup ■ Diary List ■ Members [staff] ■ Profile/mission statement:

[“community group”] This is just a test group. Pay no attention to the testers behind the curtain. *puff of smoke* — founded Aug 26, 2020

▓ Occult and Psychical Sciences on DK ■ Diary List ■ Members ■ Profile/mission statement:

A new spooky group for the upcoming Spook season The group will consist of stories about the spooky and scary, personal anecdotes, and general Arcane and Esoteric information. People are encouraged to share their personal spooky experiences, and influences. Please contact me in kmail if you wish to join. — founded Sep 09, 2020

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This group is for diabetics or those with family, friends, or other loved ones who have diabetes. We will share info, recipes, and encouragement to help control our diabetes. — founded Sep 06, 2020

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Dem

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Saturday April 18, 2020 · 9:46 PM PDT

2020/04/18 · 21:46

This is in response to a gratuitous mental state attack against the candidate who will be our nominee. So, far 20 people on Daily Kos are helping Donald Trump win ! What kind of an a$$ha# empowers Donald Trump to win reelection while Donald is so badly mismanaging this crisis. Just because our party’s symbol is a burro, doesn’t mean that you have to act to like an a$$ ! One person wrote the attack and 19 people recommended it. These people need to understand that the comment is flaggable and recommending a legitimately flagged post (that post could be legitimately flagged) endangers your standing on Daily Kos. Eventually, if you do it enough, you could be BOJOED and it would be deserved.

Here are the rules of the road :

Attacks on Democratic candidates based on right-wing rhetoric and frames

The poster took this cheap shot at Biden based upon right wing rhetoric and frames:

Biden’s age and mental state means

This is a clear and direct reference to the whole cognitive decline bullshit . Pushing right wing rhetoric and frames against our candidate is unwelcome here.

.Trump attacks Biden's cognitive health in possible general-election preview

Don’t push this Biden’s in cognitive decline $hi# because you don’t want to end up like this user.

People who are not neurologists who have examined Joe Biden are not qualified to make this type of diagnosis. Since they are pushing this kind of personal attack that the right wing is pushing against the candidate who will be our nominee and they are not qualified to make the diagnosis, then they are subject to being validly flagged for making the attack. The only person or people who are qualified to make the diagnosis are the physician / neurologist for Joe Biden who has seen him repeatedly. Nobody else is . So, this is an attack without sufficient evidence to back it up and it is an attack pushed by the right wing.

It is fairly incredible that the person referred to Biden’s “mental state” and not Trump’s mental state. Actually, it isn’t. I wonder about the mental state of people who would help Trump win reelection. If these people and others like him did this with Secretary Clinton, then it likely hurt her. Those who are unaffiliated / not committed to the Democratic Party and don’t regularly vote for Democratic Party Candidates may hear this kind of talk and think, “Wow, here is this person who is a progressive and always votes for the Democratic Party’s candidate and s/he says that Biden is in cognitive decline, then why should I vote for Biden when even people who favor the Democratic Party say Biden is in cognitive decline ? Why would I think that a person in cognitive decline would do any better than Trump in handling the public health crisis ? A person in cognitive decline may not listen to any expert ! I think I will pass this election !”

People who wrote this type of nonsense and those who recommend it are pushing something false that they are not qualified to promote, something that is right wing rhetoric and framing, and something that hurts the only candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 general election in November. These people are hurting the only candidate who can defeat Donald and they are, therefore, helping Donald Trump win reelection. They are helping the candidate who put children in cages, who obstructed justice, who has taken away health insurance from millions, who has taken away reproductive freedom from women, and who has badly mismanaged the response to the novel coronavirus. They are helping the guy whose mismanagement of the novel coronavirus has caused millions of people to be sick and tens of thousands to die and so far 22 million people to lose their job. The mental state of somebody who would help Donald Trump win reelection in light of this is really in question.

Angmar for Covid19 support group on Daily Kos

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Friday March 27, 2020 · 6:20 PM PDT

2020/03/27 · 18:20

Covid19 weekly open thread

for discussion

The United States Has The Most Confirmed Coronavirus Cases In The World

www.huffpost.com/...

YouTube Video

cdc.gov

Covid19 support group on Daily Kos

Covid19 support group on Daily Kos This group provides a forum for those seeking and those wishing to provide - information, help and support on the Coronavirus. If you are feeling stressed out, if you want to share your experiences about the disease, if you seek or want to provide practical knowledge on how to protect yourself and others from the virus, if you want to share knowledge on dealing with isolation and loneliness, please visit these diaries and contribute. This is not a forum to debate politics or how the trump administration is mishandling the pandemic or to discuss global strategies for managing the pandemic. Let's all focus in this forum on providing practical information, help and support to one another in these stressful times. Write only what will help others.

Group:

.dailykos.com/…

Coronavirus Live Updates: Read The Latest About The COVID-19 Outbreak

poopdogcomedy

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Thursday March 26, 2020 · 2:41 PM PDT

2020/03/26 · 14:41

Theresa Greenfield (D. IA)

Received this e-mail from EMILY’s List:

In 2018, we flipped the House with just pro-choice Democratic women.

This year, we can flip the Senate, too.

Democrats need to flip at least four seats to take back the Senate. And we have endorsed four pro-choice Democratic women who can make it happen.

Donate $3 to help Theresa Greenfield (IA), Barbara Bollier (KS), Sara Gideon (ME), and MJ Hegar (TX) flip the Senate.

With unprecedented Republican attacks on reproductive freedom, it's more important than ever to elect women to the Senate who will protect the right to choose no matter what.

Theresa, Barbara, Sara, and MJ will fight to protect the right to safe and legal abortion, work to increase access to reproductive health care, and hold anti-choice Republicans accountable.

They'll put women and families first.

https://secure.emilyslist.org/Elect-EMILYs-List-Women-To-The-Senate

Thank you,

Karen Defilippi
Vice President of Federal and Gubernatorial Campaigns, EMILY's List

Click here to donate to Greenfield, Bollier, Gideon and Hegar’s campaigns.

Followup on Kos' Diary "Do you have a Sewing Machine? ..." Looking for comment ...

TulsaGal

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday March 21, 2020 · 4:21 PM PDT

2020/03/21 · 16:21

Comments, suggestions, Opinion, Cookies?

I’ve been in discussions with other people who sew on Kos’ diary:

Do you have a sewing machine, and can you use it? You can be a hero and save lives

Some of us jumped on and decided to try to help. I actually started last night when I heard it on MSNBC, then started getting ideas on how to make masks that are truly compliant, and figured I’d search my fabric sources to see what was available. There are materials one can pick up at Home Depot, Walmart, or Amazon (MERV-15 or MERV-16 filters, HEPA filters) that work almost as well as N-95 non-woven filters, but you need to disassemble the filter to get to the fabric, which is some work. There’s even a YouTube video that explains how (not posting here).

But I’ve had another idea (or ten) and been busy stirring the pot — I would like to know what you think of what I’ve been doing and getting into.

First, though, there are calls for more people to sew to help by making masks, going on around the country. I have two posted here, and if I can catch it the contact info will post it (from Harvard Medical School.

Gov. Cuomo of NY has sent out a request for seamstresses to step up and help them with masks and gowns, and is offering money (covid19supplies@esd.ny.gov),
A hospital here in Oklahoma is looking for some of people to sew masks, to get the public to use them so the commercial masks can be freed up for medical staff :). It's Stillwater Memorial (OSU), and the requester asks that we go to buttoncounter.com and search for surgical masks. They have a mask pattern that uses ties instead of elastics (we can probably use it, too for other requests around the country or locally).
I don’t have contact info for the Harvard request, but when I find it, I will post it with any other requests I find, in the comments.

I've also been rooting around in my industrial materials supplier database from when I worked and found something. I reached out to an industrial supplier about the N95 filter material (the guts of the N95 mask that traps viruses and other stuff) which could be substituted for interfacing or batting in my pattern variation (see here), and would allow us to make REAL honest-to-goodness N95-compliant masks.

I didn’t know if they’d sell the fabric in small quantities that a private person could afford or if we can get someone to buy a bulk lot and help us figure out how to share it out amongst us. I don’t know if it can be shipped here or if it could be bought from their US fab (if it has any), but it’s the stuff that actually goes in the masks. It comes in 3” and 47” widths and is very cheap if purchased in bulk (<$2.00). Problem is, bulk is 1000 units minimum.

I asked for a quote on a 10-unit lot (if they would consider it at all), shipping time, and cost details, hoping to be able to play with it and see how it holds up to washing and disinfecting using a couple of methods.

Maybe if I come up with a non-aqueous method that works, one of our small manufacturers on the site would like to take the disinfection method and run with it? Or I’ll send it to Gov. Cuomo. I think I heard him say his company makes hand sanitizer …

We could keep making masks and send them wherever they are needed (get a firm to donate the shipping) if we cant get them out, locally, maybe? I’m still working it out, but asking for comments or suggestions. A few people are volunteering to deliver masks on the other diary, so do go over their and have a look if this sounds like something you want to do.

Again, Cuomo’s paying for help. So’s Harvard (I don’t have the contact info yet), and others around the country. As I find them, I’ll post them :)

What do you think? And thanks, guys!

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About that so-called "Trump freezing" and/or "telepromper fail" video ...

The Language of the Night: We Have to Be Better

I reduced down to 12 milligrams today. I started at 32 mg ! I couldn't have done this w/o you all !

Regenerative Culture: Deep Ecology

A quick reminder: what Biden said is different than what McConnell did. McConnell lied. Liars lie.

I am halfway to zero on my medication for my medication assisted treatment for substance abuse rehab

Let's push to put Pennsylvania away - Biden at 49.7% and 4.9% lead - Winning PA wins election !

📁New DK Groups #13: Animals, meta, doom, Joe&Kamala, Diabetes group, psychical/occult

Stop with the cognitive decline posts against our nominee - they ARE flaggable

Covid19 Support Group weekly open thread

IA, KS, ME & TX-Sen: EMILY's List Wants A Repeat Of 2018 But This Time With The U.S. Senate

Followup on Kos' Diary "Do you have a Sewing Machine? ..." Looking for comment ...