I went across the border to the outskirts of Waynesburg to door knock for Conor Lamb on Saturday and again today. This is Greene County, right next to WV. Demographically, economically, and politically it is about the same as the rural areas of northern WV: 95% white, mostly older than 60, largely blue collar, and solidly middle class. It is union country and majority Democratic registration, but voted overwhelmingly for Trump. It isn’t the hell hole that southern WV is, but it has been hit hard by the closing of the coal mines and by the opioid epidemic.
This is a minor part of the district. Conor is looking for about 1800 votes from Greene County. The bulk of his votes will have to come from Allegheny County (south Pittsburgh suburbs) and Washington County. But I want to flip my district (WV-01) and to do that we will need to get votes from these traditionally Democratic areas.
I have talked to about 50 people now. About 2/3 of them are strong Conor supporters and the rest are weak/undecided. A single one, a 45 year old woman, was going to vote for his opponent. Since my walk lists were mostly Democrats I hope that the majority of the undecideds come back home.
Many people have mentioned that they are union so of course they are going to vote for Conor. That was not something I would have thought was a given after 2016, but of course I kept that thought to myself.
Twice today I had the unusual experience of getting a spouse (instead of the person I was supposed to talk to) who said that both of them were enthusiastically voting for Conor. In my past experience when this happens the spouse tells me to get lost (because they are Republican and don’t want the other one to get any positive feedback). So my walk lists were underestimating Conor’s appeal.
I noticed driving around that there are Lamb signs in yards everywhere, even on the rural roads. A friend of mine who drives all over the county for business says that this is typical. The only signs I have seen for his opponent are at major intersections, and there seem to be many fewer of them than there were two weeks ago. The campaign told me that the opponents had hired somebody to put out signs. They thought it was funny that he would put ten or so at one intersection. They were going to put up BurmaShave type signs making fun of that.
The Cook report has changed their prediction from Lean Republican to Toss Up. I am sure that there are plenty of Republicans who will grit their teeth and go vote for a clown just because he has an “R” next to his name. But there is no doubt that the enthusiasm is entirely on Conor’s side.
Pennsylvania has almost no early voting, so the key will be turnout on March 13. I haven’t heard about phone banking, but I expect they will need help. 75,000 contacts in one day is a major undertaking.
This one is winnable. Feel free to donate.