List of Republican seats and statewide offices potentially endangered in different degrees, in the next election.
Even if we do not know still the nature of the following cycles, it is always positive to look at the potential sources of gans, and for it it is positive to check which offices in Republican hands actually can be potentiall endangered in the following election.
This diary is the inverse of a previous diary looking at the potentially endangered Democratic US Hous seats
www.dailykos.com/...
but in this case also expanded to the US Senate, Gubernatorial and Statewide Elected Offices, noting the year in which would be the following election for the offices (between 2022 and 2026).
Also, in this case I will advance the new 2016-2020 PVIs of the offices (+ positive variation from the 2012-2016 PVI, — negative variation from the 2012-2016 PVI), in the cases where I have them calculed. Likely I will update later the diary to complete the data, that would be provisional still for the US House seats, and in in some cases there is not still enough data to do the provisional calculus.
For this diary, being Republican held seats and offices, it is better to take the Republican national average reference for every cycle (Presidential vote for years with presidential election and US House Popular Vote for the cycles without presidential election), taking into account that these references are not reduced to the two party vote (it is easier to realize of the real nature of the cycle using the real reference).
Before to begin it is also important to note that potentially endangered is not the same than safe gains. This diary is the result of a calculus for every case of the point from which a office begins to be potentially vulnerable.
In the following list, there is a order from weaker to safer seat and office, taking into account the last election result in every case.
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 58.77% R year like 1984 = 2
22 MD-LG: D+14 (+2) Open by R
22 MD-Gov: D+14 (+2) Open by R
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 53.37% R year like 1988 = 3 (the previously cited plus...)
22 NV-SS: EVEN (-1) Open by R
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 51.65% R year like 2010 = 6 (the previously cited plus...)
22 PA-Sen: R+2 (-2) Open by R
22 AZ-Gov: R+3 (+2) Open by R
22 NC-Sen: R+3 (=0) Open by R
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 51.53% R year like 1994 = 6 (the previously cited plus...)
-
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 51.23% R year like 2014 = 6 (the previously cited plus...)
-
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 50.73% R year like 2004 = 7 (the previously cited plus...)
21 TX-06: R+6 (+3) Open by R
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 49.97% R year like 2002 = 7 (the previously cited plus...)
-
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 48.40% R year like 1998 = 9 (the previously cited plus...)
22 UT-04: R+6 (+7)
22 OH-Sen: R+6 (-3) Open by R
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 47.87% R year like 2000 = 14 (the previously cited plus...)
22 MN-01: R+8 (-3)
24 PA-ST: R+2 (-2)
26 NC-Sen: R+3 (=0)
22 TX-24: R+4 (+5)
22: NY-22: R+9 (-3)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 47.20% R year like 2012 = 15 (the previously cited plus...)
24 PA-SA: R+2 (-2)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 46.91% R year like 2020 = 15 (the previously cited plus...)
-
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 46.09% R year like 2016 = 23 (the previously cited plus...)
22 IA-02: R+4 (-5)
22 IN-05: R+5 (+4)
22 CA-25: D+3 (+3)
22 CA-21: D+5 (=0)
22 TX-23: R+2 (-1)
22 CA-39: D+3 (+3)
22 SC-01: R+7 (+3)
22 NE-02: R+1 (+3)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 45.65% R year like 2008 = 27 (the previously cited plus...)
24 NC-LC: R+3 (=0)
22 WI-Sen: R+2 (-2)
26 ME-Sen: D+1 (-2)
22 CA-48: R+1 (+3)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 44.85% R year like 2018 = 44 (the previously cited plus...)
22 IA-01: R+3 (-4)
22 FL-27: D+4 (-1)
24 NC-SPI: R+3 (=0)
22 CO-03: R+6 (=0)
22 TX-22: R+4 (+6)
24 NC-LG: R+3 (=0)
24 FL-LG: R+3 (-1)
24 FL-Gov: R+3 (-1)
22 FL-26: D+1 (-5)
24 NC-IC: R+3 (=0)
26 IA-Sen: R+6 (-3)
22 OH-01: R+4 (+1)
22 MO-Sen: R+11 (-2) Open by R
22 MO-02: R+4 (+4)
24 MT-SPI: R+11 (=0) Open by R
22 NJ-02: R+4 (-3)
22 TX-21: R+5 (+5)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 44.40% R year like 1986 = 60 (the previously cited plus...)
22 OK-05: R+7 (+3)
24 IN-ST: R+11 (-2) Open by R
24 IN-SS: R+11 (-2) Open by R
24 IN-LG: R+11 (-2) Open by R
24 IN-Gov: R+11 (-2) Open by R
22 IA-LG: R+6 (-3)
22 IA-Gov: R+6 (-2)
24 FL-Sen: R+3 (-1)
23 MS-Gov: R+10 (-1)
22 AZ-06: R+5 (+4)
23 KY-SS: R+16 (-1)
22 GA-Gov: R+3 (+2)
22 GA-SCCI: R+3 (+2)
22 OH-LG: R+6 (-3)
22 OH-Gov: R+6 (-3)
22 TX-10: R+4 or R+5 (+4 or +5)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 44.28% R year like 2006 = 62 (the previously cited plus...)
24 NC-ST: R+3 (=0)
22 VA-05: R+7 (-1)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 44.26% R year like 1990 = 63 (the previously cited plus...)
22 TX-AG: R+5 (+3)
Seats potentially endangered if the next election is in a 43.37% R year like 1982 = 91 (the previously cited plus...)
22 OH-SS: R+6 (-3)
24 IN-Sen: R+11 (-2)
22 FL-Sen: R+3 (-1)
22 IN-Sen: R+11 (-2)
22 NY-02: R+5 (-2)
24 TX-Sen: R+5 (+3)
22 MI-03: R+5 (+1)
26 TX-RRC3: R+5 (+3)
22 SD-LG: R+16 (-2)
22 SD-Gov: R+16 (-2)
22 NY-11: R+7 (-4)
22 NY-24: D+2 (-1)
26 KS-Sen: R+11 (+2)
22 NC-08: R+6 (+2)
22 PA-10: R+5 (+1)
22 TX-CA: R+5 (+3)
22 GA-AG: R+3 (+2)
22 TX-LG R+5 (+3)
22 MN-07: R+17 or R+18 (-5 or -6)
22 TX-31: R+6 (+4)
24 MO-Sen: R+11 (-2)
22 IA-SS: R+6 (-3)
22 AK-LG: R+8 (+1)
22 AK-Gov: R+8 (+1)
26 TX-Sen: R+5 (+3)
22 NE-LG: R+13 (+1) Open by R
22 NE-Gov: R+13 (+1) Open by R
22 ID-SPI: R+19 (=0)
Worse for the Republicans than this requires exceptional conditions of high level vote to third parties, like happened in 1996, a 40.71% R year, and 1992, a 37.45% R year.
It is necessary to take into account also the effect of the Redistricting process, that will affect to the US House seats included here, and roughly we can say that the Republicans will make less vulnerable the districts in Trump states, where they basically have complete control of the Redistricting process, likely until the point of making them to exit from this list. In the Biden states instead, the districts included here can be made more vulnerable still in overall terms, with very few exceptions, because some of the districts cited here can also disappear by the new apportionment.
It means, it will be necessary to update this preview when the Redistricting process be completed, and the data of the new districts be available. But at this point these data are not available.
In overall terms it is logical to see these results, because 2016, 2018 and 2020 have not been strong Republican years, despite to win the Electoral Votes in 2016. At this point 6 open by R offices would be potentially endangered in a 50-50 or 49-49 cycle.
And not more than 27 seats and offices would be potentially endangered in a cycle that reach not the level of 2018 in terms of negative result for the Republicans.
The rest of the cases would require a Democratic wave at least in the level of 2018 to be potentially endangered in the next election (not only 2022).
The way to increase this number of potentially endangered Republican seats and offices is to look at the pending changes related the long term trends. You can read about it in this comment:
www.dailykos.com/...
Roughly it would mean that in a EVEN situation the number of potentially endangered Republican seats and offices, would increase from 6 to until 19 (avoiding double count, without include still redistricting effects).
In fact to look at the pending changes related to the long term trends is much more effective increasing the options for gains in even or negative cycles, than in expansive cycles, where the number of potentially endangered seats and offices is higher by nature. Obviously also the seats and offices related to the pending changes in long term trends are easier to win in positive cycles, like the rest.
The number of potentially endangered Republican seats and offices also would increase with more open by R seats and offices.
To finish we can include a poll, symmetric to the poll of the previous diary, this time about the Republican result in 2022. Again, like in the previous diary, we can make a mathematical compositon with all the votes to obtain our own overall prediction, that would be included in the diary, in some update.
After XX votes, the overall prediction for 2022 would be = XX.XX% D.
Also it would be interesting to be a composition of the results o both polls, to obtain our own overall prediction for 2022.
The overall prediction of the readers of both diaries for the cycle would be
XX.XX% D — XX.XX% R.
Read More
