Edit:
I did not do my due diligence with this diary and I apologize for that. The resource that I was using was not using the 2010 official Census numbers, but the 2010 estimates. This mistake created some massive distortions in larger counties like Harris and Dallas (the "missing" 30,000 voters in each county referenced in my write-up, for instance), Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Travis, and Bexar. Because I have massive respect for the truth and for honesty - and because I know I'll have fun doing it - I'm going to re-do this diary with the actual growth numbers. :) For instance, Dallas County has 2,368,139 individuals instead of 2,377,642. This works out to have a growth rate of something slightly larger than 15.75%: 16.21%. I'll have to work out those numbers for all the larger counties that I've split.
KingofSpades inspired me with his Colorado in 2020 diary. So, given that Texas is poised to gain a whopping three new districts after just gaining four in 2010, I thought it would be interesting to game it out. I'm gonna go out on a limb ands say that this estimate is a lowball, considering that Texas is forecasted to be majority Hispanic by 2020. The only way for that to happen is to have even more explosive growth than we already have... But I digress.
I've used the wonderful resource that twohundertseventy turned KingofSpaces, James Allen, and I onto in the comments of the Colorado diary for county-wide population figures and for growth rates. For the sake of simplicity, I've applied these growth rates evenly throughout any given county, which allows me to calculate how much population would be needed to fill what in 2020 would be the ideal population. This allows me to accurately split the larger counties instead of just relying on the countywide numbers to guesstimate. I know it isn't the best way of looking at the trend (some areas are going to grow more than others even within a county), but its the only way that works at such a large scale... and even then there were some kinks. In both Harris County and Dallas County, 30,000 citizens somehow just missing after I inflated with the growth rate numbers. I honestly don't know where they went or how they got there, but they're definitely gone - so admittedly this isn't perfect and there had to be some minor adjustments even after the projections are taken into account. Interestingly, it somehow worked out perfectly statewide... I just don't know how... I've been through the math about twenty times already and still can't figure out my good luck!
Now, the big question is demographics. We know that Hispanics are likely to outnumber Anglos by the end of the decade in my great state, but the question is where those Hispanic are likely to be. I've assumed large relative growth in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Corpus Christi, and the Panhandle. I've assumed minimum relative growth in the Valley, the Border and Big Bend, and El Paso. In East Texas I've assumed moderate growth, but that honestly doesn't matter with respect to the election numbers as they start from such a low base (at least outside of Tyler that is) in that region. For the districts below, I'll reference the "Total Population" numbers from Dave's App as a baseline for what the VAP numbers might be in 10 years. From there I'll assume a somewhat higher level because the current total population will not reflect 10 more years' worth of immigration and naturalization. Even given this growth, the Republican Party will still likely have complete control over the process in Texas. I've drawn this map to reflect the will of that legislature and to, at the very least, show what the possibility is in 10 years' time.
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